Goexch
Get your ID

FootballPremier League 2026/27

Arsenal vs Sunderland prediction

By Goexch Football Desk, Premier League analysisUpdated

Goexch verdictStrong lean

On our numbers, Arsenal beat Sunderland 83% of the time, with the draw at 12%. We project 2.86 expected goals to 0.61 and a 2-0 score, with over 2.5 goals at 67%. Kick-off: Sat, 20 Mar 2027, 20:30 IST IST at Emirates Stadium.

Exchange view

Fair prices

  1. ArsenalPick

    83%
    Back1.20Lay1.20

  2. Draw

    12%
    Back8.33Lay8.33

  3. Sunderland

    5%
    Back20.00Lay20.00
Start
20:30
IST
Date
Sat, 20 Mar 2027 · 15:00 UK
Venue
Emirates Stadium, London

Back at the gold price or bigger, lay at it or smaller.

Quick read

Arsenal vs Sunderland in brief

  • Arsenal 83%, draw 12%, Sunderland 5%, which makes this a strong lean.
  • Predicted score 2-0, with goals expected (3.5 xG).
  • Both teams to score: 43% on our model.
Predicted score
2-0
Goexch pick
Arsenal
UK broadcast
Not televised yet
Projected cards
3.5-4.5

Exchange plan

How should you trade Arsenal vs Sunderland on Goexch?

Our fair prices for the pick and the outsider. Laying the outsider wins if the favourite wins or it ends in a draw.

  1. Back83% chance

    Arsenal1.20

    Take 1.20 or bigger. A ₹100 back at 1.20 returns ₹120, stake included.

  2. Lay5% chance

    Sunderland20.00

    Lay only at 20.00 or smaller. At 20.00, a ₹100 lay risks ₹1900 to win ₹100.

Key factors

What will decide this match?

Home advantage first, then expected goals and the factor with the most influence on this match.

  1. Home advantage

    Edge: Arsenal

    Arsenal are the stronger side and at home, which our model values at just over a fifth of a goal. Both advantages add up.

  2. Expected goals

    Edge: Goals

    3.5 expected goals is above the league average, and over 2.5 goals lands 67% of the time in our simulations.

  3. Quality gap

    Edge: Arsenal

    Arsenal rate clearly higher and the draw is only 12%. If they score first, the match should go their way.

Goals model

How many goals will there be in Arsenal vs Sunderland?

Our model's chance of each goal total, with the most likely outcome in gold.

012345+

total goals

Both teams score
43%
Over 2.5 goals
67%
Expected goals
2.86 – 0.61
Half-time call
1-0

Team set-up

How will the two teams line up?

Confirmed line-ups are published about an hour before kick-off.

Home

Arsenal

Arsenal are built to dominate the ball. They should have most of the possession at Emirates Stadium and keep Sunderland pinned in their own half for long spells.

Away

Sunderland

Sunderland are a practical mid-table side: solid without the ball on their trip to Emirates Stadium, but lacking the creativity to run a game.

Risk radar

What could change the prediction?

The news that would move our numbers before kick-off.

  • If Arsenal name a weakened XI

    Rotation or a missing key player would cut several points from their win chance. Line-ups are out an hour before kick-off.

  • If Sunderland score first

    The favourite has to chase the game, and both the draw and the upset become much more likely.

  • If a red card comes in the first hour

    Going down to ten men changes the expected-goals picture completely, whichever side it hits.

Preview

Arsenal vs Sunderland match preview

Sunderland visit Emirates Stadium in a 2026/27 Premier League match that the Goexch model rates as a strong lean. We project 2.86 expected goals for Arsenal and 0.61 for Sunderland. Across thousands of simulated matches, Arsenal win 83% of them. An early goal would change everything for Sunderland. Teams chasing a game leave gaps, and that is where upsets come from.

Calendar

Calendar check: Arsenal and Sunderland

Recovery time and the next fixture for both clubs, from the published Premier League schedule.

Arsenal play 7 days after their game away at Chelsea on 13 Mar. After this, they go away at Coventry 21 days after this one. League game 30 of 38.

Sunderland play 7 days after their game at home to Brentford on 13 Mar. After this, they go at home to Ipswich 21 days after this one. League game 30 of 38.

These sides already met at Stadium of Light on Sat, 12 Sept 2026, making this the return fixture.

  1. 13 MarChelsea vs ArsenalStamford Bridge
  2. 13 MarSunderland vs BrentfordStadium of Light
  3. 20 MarArsenal vs SunderlandEmirates Stadium
  4. 10 AprCoventry vs ArsenalCoventry Building Society Arena
  5. 10 AprSunderland vs IpswichStadium of Light

Keep reading

More Arsenal and Sunderland predictions

  1. 10 AprCoventry City vs ArsenalPremier League · 19:30 IST
  2. 17 AprArsenal vs Aston VillaPremier League · 19:30 IST
  3. 10 AprSunderland vs Ipswich TownPremier League · 19:30 IST
  4. 17 AprFulham vs SunderlandPremier League · 19:30 IST
  5. 20 MarBrentford vs AFC BournemouthPremier League · 20:30 IST
  6. 20 MarBrighton & Hove Albion vs Coventry CityPremier League · 20:30 IST

Back or lay it live

Trade this match with your Goexch ID

One ID for cricket, football and tennis, with 24/7 WhatsApp support in English and Hindi. 18+ only. Set a budget first and bet responsibly.

Get your ID on WhatsApp

FAQ · 9

Arsenal vs Sunderland FAQs

Short, direct answers to the questions fans ask most.

Still unsure? Ask the Goexch team on WhatsApp

Who will win Arsenal vs Sunderland?

Goexch predicts Arsenal to win. Our goals model gives Arsenal 83%, the draw 12% and Sunderland 5%, which we class as a strong lean.

What is the predicted score for Arsenal vs Sunderland?

Our predicted score is 2-0, with 1-0 at half-time. The most common exact score across our simulations is 2-0, at 13%.

What are the fair odds for Arsenal vs Sunderland?

On our numbers: Arsenal 1.20, draw 8.33, Sunderland 20.00. A back price shorter than that has no value on our model.

What time does Arsenal vs Sunderland kick off in India?

20:30 IST IST on Sat, 20 Mar 2027 (15:00 in the UK), at Emirates Stadium in London. Kick-offs can move for TV, so check again closer to the day.

How do I trade Arsenal vs Sunderland on the Goexch exchange?

On our numbers, back Arsenal at 1.20 or bigger, or lay Sunderland at 20.00 or smaller. Laying means you win if Sunderland do not win; at 20.00, a ₹100 lay risks ₹1900. Prices move before and during the match, so check the live back and lay odds first.

Arsenal vs Sunderland match kaun jeetega?

Goexch goals model mein Arsenal aage hain: Arsenal 83%, draw 12%, Sunderland 5%. Sabse sambhav score 2-0 hai. Yeh sirf anumaan hai, guarantee nahi.

How many goals are expected in Arsenal vs Sunderland?

3.5 expected goals in total. The most likely number of goals is 5, and a 0-0 comes up 3% of the time.

Will both teams score in Arsenal vs Sunderland?

We put both teams to score at 43%, so we lean no. Over 2.5 goals is 67%.

Where can I watch Arsenal vs Sunderland?

Indian TV rights change between seasons, so check the official Premier League listings near the day.

Dates and kick-off times follow the published Premier League fixture list and can move for TV or cup commitments. Win percentages, projected scores and picks on this page come from the Goexch model, built on team strength, venue history and conditions. They are estimates, not guarantees, and bets are settled on the live exchange odds you take. 18+ only. Set a budget before you bet and play responsibly.

Check it at the source

Sources and official information

External sites open in a new tab. We aren't affiliated with them.