Goexch
Get your ID

FootballPremier League 2026/27

Everton vs Arsenal prediction

By Goexch Football Desk, Premier League analysisUpdated

Goexch verdictClear lean

Goexch backs Arsenal in Everton vs Arsenal, with a 58% win chance (clear lean). The model's most likely score is 1-2, the draw is 22%, both teams score 56% of the time and over 2.5 goals lands 58% of the time. Kick-off: Sun, 23 May 2027, 19:30 IST IST at Hill Dickinson Stadium.

Exchange view

Fair prices

  1. Everton

    20%
    Back5.00Lay5.00

  2. Draw

    22%
    Back4.55Lay4.55

  3. ArsenalPick

    58%
    Back1.72Lay1.72
Start
19:30
IST
Date
Sun, 23 May 2027 · 15:00 UK
Venue
Hill Dickinson Stadium, Liverpool

Back at the gold price or bigger, lay at it or smaller.

Quick read

Everton vs Arsenal in brief

  • Arsenal 58%, draw 22%, Everton 20%, which makes this a clear lean.
  • Predicted score 1-2, with goals expected (3.0 xG).
  • Both teams to score: 56% on our model.
Predicted score
1-2
Goexch pick
Arsenal
UK broadcast
Not televised yet
Projected cards
3.5-4.5

Exchange plan

How should you trade Everton vs Arsenal on Goexch?

Our fair prices for the pick and the outsider. Laying the outsider wins if the favourite wins or it ends in a draw.

  1. Back58% chance

    Arsenal1.72

    Take 1.72 or bigger. A ₹100 back at 1.72 returns ₹172, stake included.

  2. Lay20% chance

    Everton5.00

    Lay only at 5.00 or smaller. At 5.00, a ₹100 lay risks ₹400 to win ₹100.

Key factors

What will decide this match?

Home advantage first, then expected goals and the factor with the most influence on this match.

  1. Home advantage

    Edge: Even

    Home support is worth about a fifth of a goal to Everton. That narrows the gap but does not cancel Arsenal's extra quality.

  2. Expected goals

    Edge: Goals

    3.0 expected goals is above the league average, and over 2.5 goals lands 58% of the time in our simulations.

  3. Quality gap

    Edge: Arsenal

    Arsenal rate clearly higher and the draw is only 22%. If they score first, the match should go their way.

Goals model

How many goals will there be in Everton vs Arsenal?

Our model's chance of each goal total, with the most likely outcome in gold.

012345+

total goals

Both teams score
56%
Over 2.5 goals
58%
Expected goals
1.05 – 1.94
Half-time call
0-0

Team set-up

How will the two teams line up?

Confirmed line-ups are published about an hour before kick-off.

Home

Everton

Everton are a practical mid-table side: solid without the ball at Hill Dickinson Stadium, but lacking the creativity to run a game.

Away

Arsenal

Arsenal have a squad deep enough to challenge for the title. They squeeze opponents on their trip to Hill Dickinson Stadium, so Everton will need a disciplined low block to stay in the game.

Risk radar

What could change the prediction?

The news that would move our numbers before kick-off.

  • If Arsenal name a weakened XI

    Rotation or a missing key player would cut several points from their win chance. Line-ups are out an hour before kick-off.

  • If Everton score first

    The favourite has to chase the game, and both the draw and the upset become much more likely.

  • If a red card comes in the first hour

    Going down to ten men changes the expected-goals picture completely, whichever side it hits.

Preview

Everton vs Arsenal match preview

Everton host Arsenal in front of their own fans, and the Goexch numbers lean towards Arsenal. The expected-goals gap (1.05 for Everton, 1.94 for Arsenal) is the clearest signal, and it is where our 58% for Arsenal comes from. Everton's best chance is to keep it level into the last 30 minutes, when the draw becomes a real possibility.

Calendar

Calendar check: Everton and Arsenal

Recovery time and the next fixture for both clubs, from the published Premier League schedule.

Everton play 8 days after their game away at Chelsea on 15 May. After this, they go away at Ipswich 7 days after this one. League game 37 of 38.

Arsenal play 8 days after their game at home to Forest on 15 May. After this, they go at home to Brighton 7 days after this one. League game 37 of 38.

These sides already met at Emirates Stadium on Sat, 24 Oct 2026, making this the return fixture.

  1. 15 MayChelsea vs EvertonStamford Bridge
  2. 15 MayArsenal vs ForestEmirates Stadium
  3. 23 MayEverton vs ArsenalHill Dickinson Stadium
  4. 30 MayIpswich vs EvertonPortman Road
  5. 30 MayArsenal vs BrightonEmirates Stadium

Keep reading

More Everton and Arsenal predictions

  1. 24 OctArsenal vs EvertonPremier League · 19:30 IST
  2. 30 MayIpswich Town vs EvertonPremier League · 19:30 IST
  3. 30 MayArsenal vs Brighton & Hove AlbionPremier League · 19:30 IST
  4. 23 MayAFC Bournemouth vs ChelseaPremier League · 19:30 IST
  5. 23 MayBrentford vs Hull CityPremier League · 19:30 IST
  6. 23 MayBrighton & Hove Albion vs LiverpoolPremier League · 19:30 IST

Back or lay it live

Trade this match with your Goexch ID

One ID for cricket, football and tennis, with 24/7 WhatsApp support in English and Hindi. 18+ only. Set a budget first and bet responsibly.

Get your ID on WhatsApp

FAQ · 9

Everton vs Arsenal FAQs

Short, direct answers to the questions fans ask most.

Still unsure? Ask the Goexch team on WhatsApp

Who will win Everton vs Arsenal?

Goexch predicts Arsenal to win. Our goals model gives Everton 20%, the draw 22% and Arsenal 58%, which we class as a clear lean.

What is the predicted score for Everton vs Arsenal?

Our predicted score is 1-2, with 0-0 at half-time. The most common exact score across our simulations is 1-1, at 10%.

What are the fair odds for Everton vs Arsenal?

On our numbers: Everton 5.00, draw 4.55, Arsenal 1.72. A back price shorter than that has no value on our model.

What time does Everton vs Arsenal kick off in India?

19:30 IST IST on Sun, 23 May 2027 (15:00 in the UK), at Hill Dickinson Stadium in Liverpool. Kick-offs can move for TV, so check again closer to the day.

How do I trade Everton vs Arsenal on the Goexch exchange?

On our numbers, back Arsenal at 1.72 or bigger, or lay Everton at 5.00 or smaller. Laying means you win if Everton do not win; at 5.00, a ₹100 lay risks ₹400. Prices move before and during the match, so check the live back and lay odds first.

Everton vs Arsenal match kaun jeetega?

Goexch goals model mein Arsenal aage hain: Everton 20%, draw 22%, Arsenal 58%. Sabse sambhav score 1-2 hai. Yeh sirf anumaan hai, guarantee nahi.

Is betting on the Premier League legal in India?

Online betting rules in India are set at both the central and state level, and the Promotion and Regulation of Online Gaming Act, 2025 restricts online real-money games. Check the law that applies where you live before you play. This is general information, not legal advice, and you must be 18 or older.

How many goals are expected in Everton vs Arsenal?

3.0 expected goals in total. The most likely number of goals is 2, and a 0-0 comes up 5% of the time.

Will both teams score in Everton vs Arsenal?

We put both teams to score at 56%, so we lean yes. Over 2.5 goals is 58%.

Dates and kick-off times follow the published Premier League fixture list and can move for TV or cup commitments. Win percentages, projected scores and picks on this page come from the Goexch model, built on team strength, venue history and conditions. They are estimates, not guarantees, and bets are settled on the live exchange odds you take. 18+ only. Set a budget before you bet and play responsibly.

Check it at the source

Sources and official information

External sites open in a new tab. We aren't affiliated with them.