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FootballPremier League 2026/27

Everton vs Aston Villa prediction

By Goexch Football Desk, Premier League analysisUpdated

Goexch verdictCoin flip

Too close to call, with a slight lean to Villa. The Goexch goals model gives Everton 33%, the draw 25% and Villa 42%, and expects 2.8 goals in total. Our most likely score is 0-1. Kick-off: Tue, 05 Jan 2027, 01:00 IST, next day IST at Hill Dickinson Stadium.

Exchange view

Fair prices

  1. Everton

    33%
    Back3.03Lay3.03

  2. Draw

    25%
    Back4.00Lay4.00

  3. Aston VillaPick

    42%
    Back2.38Lay2.38
Start
01:00
IST
Date
Tue, 05 Jan 2027 · 19:30 UK
Venue
Hill Dickinson Stadium, Liverpool

Back at the gold price or bigger, lay at it or smaller.

Quick read

Everton vs Villa in brief

  • Villa 42%, draw 25%, Everton 33%, which makes this a coin flip.
  • Predicted score 0-1, with the goals line finely balanced (2.8 xG).
  • Both teams to score: 56% on our model.
Predicted score
0-1
Goexch pick
Villa
UK broadcast
Sky Sports
Projected cards
3.5-4.5

Exchange plan

How should you trade Everton vs Villa on Goexch?

Our fair prices for the pick and the outsider. Laying the outsider wins if the favourite wins or it ends in a draw.

  1. Back42% chance

    Aston Villa2.38

    Take 2.38 or bigger. A ₹100 back at 2.38 returns ₹238, stake included.

  2. Lay33% chance

    Everton3.03

    Lay only at 3.03 or smaller. At 3.03, a ₹100 lay risks ₹203 to win ₹100.

Key factors

What will decide this match?

Home advantage first, then expected goals and the factor with the most influence on this match.

  1. Home advantage

    Edge: Even

    Home support is worth about a fifth of a goal to Everton. That narrows the gap but does not cancel Villa's extra quality.

  2. Expected goals

    Edge: Even

    At 2.8 expected goals, the 2.5 line is close to 50/50 (52% for the over).

  3. Quality gap

    Edge: Villa

    Villa rate clearly higher and the draw is only 25%. If they score first, the match should go their way.

Goals model

How many goals will there be in Everton vs Villa?

Our model's chance of each goal total, with the most likely outcome in gold.

012345+

total goals

Both teams score
56%
Over 2.5 goals
52%
Expected goals
1.30 – 1.48
Half-time call
0-0

Team set-up

How will the two teams line up?

Confirmed line-ups are published about an hour before kick-off.

Home

Everton

Everton are a practical mid-table side: solid without the ball at Hill Dickinson Stadium, but lacking the creativity to run a game.

Away

Aston Villa

Villa are well drilled and have enough quality up front to punish mistakes on their trip to Hill Dickinson Stadium. Everything they do starts with control of midfield.

Risk radar

What could change the prediction?

The news that would move our numbers before kick-off.

  • If Villa name a weakened XI

    Rotation or a missing key player would cut several points from their win chance. Line-ups are out an hour before kick-off.

  • If Everton score first

    The favourite has to chase the game, and both the draw and the upset become much more likely.

  • If a red card comes in the first hour

    Going down to ten men changes the expected-goals picture completely, whichever side it hits.

Preview

Everton vs Villa match preview

Everton host Aston Villa in front of their own fans, and the Goexch numbers lean towards Villa. The expected-goals gap (1.30 for Everton, 1.48 for Villa) is the clearest signal, and it is where our 42% for Villa comes from. Everton's best chance is to keep it level into the last 30 minutes, when the draw becomes a real possibility.

Calendar

Calendar check: Everton and Villa

Recovery time and the next fixture for both clubs, from the published Premier League schedule.

Everton play 4 days after their game away at Leeds on 01 Jan. After this, they go away at Coventry 11 days after this one. League game 20 of 38.

Villa play 3 days after their game away at Bournemouth on 02 Jan, so tired legs could show late on. After this, they go at home to Man Utd 11 days after this one. League game 20 of 38.

These sides already met at Villa Park on Wed, 02 Dec 2026, making this the return fixture. UK broadcaster: Sky Sports.

  1. 01 JanLeeds vs EvertonElland Road
  2. 02 JanBournemouth vs VillaVitality Stadium
  3. 05 JanEverton vs VillaHill Dickinson Stadium
  4. 16 JanCoventry vs EvertonCoventry Building Society Arena
  5. 16 JanVilla vs Man UtdVilla Park

Keep reading

More Everton and Villa predictions

  1. 02 DecAston Villa vs EvertonPremier League · 01:30 IST, next day
  2. 16 JanCoventry City vs EvertonPremier League · 20:30 IST
  3. 23 JanEverton vs BrentfordPremier League · 20:30 IST
  4. 16 JanAston Villa vs Manchester UnitedPremier League · 20:30 IST
  5. 23 JanFulham vs Aston VillaPremier League · 20:30 IST
  6. 05 JanArsenal vs BrentfordPremier League · 01:00 IST, next day

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FAQ · 9

Everton vs Aston Villa FAQs

Short, direct answers to the questions fans ask most.

Still unsure? Ask the Goexch team on WhatsApp

Who will win Everton vs Villa?

Goexch predicts Aston Villa to win. Our goals model gives Everton 33%, the draw 25% and Villa 42%, which we class as a coin flip.

What is the predicted score for Everton vs Aston Villa?

Our predicted score is 0-1, with 0-0 at half-time. The most common exact score across our simulations is 1-1, at 12%.

What are the fair odds for Everton vs Villa?

On our numbers: Everton 3.03, draw 4.00, Villa 2.38. A back price shorter than that has no value on our model.

What time does Everton vs Aston Villa kick off in India?

01:00 IST, next day IST on Tue, 05 Jan 2027 (19:30 in the UK), at Hill Dickinson Stadium in Liverpool. Kick-offs can move for TV, so check again closer to the day.

How do I trade Everton vs Villa on the Goexch exchange?

On our numbers, back Aston Villa at 2.38 or bigger, or lay Everton at 3.03 or smaller. Laying means you win if Everton do not win; at 3.03, a ₹100 lay risks ₹203. Prices move before and during the match, so check the live back and lay odds first.

Everton vs Villa match kaun jeetega?

Goexch goals model mein Aston Villa aage hain: Everton 33%, draw 25%, Villa 42%. Sabse sambhav score 0-1 hai. Yeh sirf anumaan hai, guarantee nahi.

Will both teams score in Everton vs Villa?

We put both teams to score at 56%, so we lean yes. Over 2.5 goals is 52%.

How many goals are expected in Everton vs Villa?

2.8 expected goals in total. The most likely number of goals is 2, and a 0-0 comes up 6% of the time.

Where can I watch Everton vs Villa?

In the UK it is on Sky Sports. Indian TV rights change between seasons, so check the official Premier League listings near the day.

Dates and kick-off times follow the published Premier League fixture list and can move for TV or cup commitments. Win percentages, projected scores and picks on this page come from the Goexch model, built on team strength, venue history and conditions. They are estimates, not guarantees, and bets are settled on the live exchange odds you take. 18+ only. Set a budget before you bet and play responsibly.

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Sources and official information

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