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FootballPremier League 2026/27

Hull City vs Newcastle United prediction

By Goexch Football Desk, Premier League analysisUpdated

Goexch verdictStrong lean

On our numbers, Newcastle beat Hull 66% of the time, with the draw at 19%. We project 1.03 expected goals to 2.33 and a 1-2 score, with over 2.5 goals at 65%. Kick-off: Sun, 30 May 2027, 19:30 IST IST at MKM Stadium.

Exchange view

Fair prices

  1. Hull City

    15%
    Back6.67Lay6.67

  2. Draw

    19%
    Back5.26Lay5.26

  3. Newcastle UnitedPick

    66%
    Back1.52Lay1.52
Start
19:30
IST
Date
Sun, 30 May 2027 · 15:00 UK
Venue
MKM Stadium, Hull

Back at the gold price or bigger, lay at it or smaller.

Quick read

Hull vs Newcastle in brief

  • Newcastle 66%, draw 19%, Hull 15%, which makes this a strong lean.
  • Predicted score 1-2, with goals expected (3.4 xG).
  • Both teams to score: 58% on our model.
Predicted score
1-2
Goexch pick
Newcastle
UK broadcast
Not televised yet
Projected cards
3.5-4.5

Exchange plan

How should you trade Hull vs Newcastle on Goexch?

Our fair prices for the pick and the outsider. Laying the outsider wins if the favourite wins or it ends in a draw.

  1. Back66% chance

    Newcastle United1.52

    Take 1.52 or bigger. A ₹100 back at 1.52 returns ₹152, stake included.

  2. Lay15% chance

    Hull City6.67

    Lay only at 6.67 or smaller. At 6.67, a ₹100 lay risks ₹567 to win ₹100.

Key factors

What will decide this match?

Home advantage first, then expected goals and the factor with the most influence on this match.

  1. Home advantage

    Edge: Even

    Home support is worth about a fifth of a goal to Hull. That narrows the gap but does not cancel Newcastle's extra quality.

  2. Expected goals

    Edge: Goals

    3.4 expected goals is above the league average, and over 2.5 goals lands 65% of the time in our simulations.

  3. Quality gap

    Edge: Newcastle

    Newcastle rate clearly higher and the draw is only 19%. If they score first, the match should go their way.

Goals model

How many goals will there be in Hull vs Newcastle?

Our model's chance of each goal total, with the most likely outcome in gold.

012345+

total goals

Both teams score
58%
Over 2.5 goals
65%
Expected goals
1.03 – 2.33
Half-time call
0-1

Team set-up

How will the two teams line up?

Confirmed line-ups are published about an hour before kick-off.

Home · promoted

Hull City

As a promoted club, Hull will focus on keeping it tight at MKM Stadium. Their best chances tend to come from corners, free kicks and quick breaks.

Away

Newcastle United

Newcastle are well drilled and have enough quality up front to punish mistakes on their trip to MKM Stadium. Everything they do starts with control of midfield.

Risk radar

What could change the prediction?

The news that would move our numbers before kick-off.

  • If Newcastle name a weakened XI

    Rotation or a missing key player would cut several points from their win chance. Line-ups are out an hour before kick-off.

  • If Hull score first

    The favourite has to chase the game, and both the draw and the upset become much more likely.

  • If a red card comes in the first hour

    Going down to ten men changes the expected-goals picture completely, whichever side it hits.

Preview

Hull vs Newcastle match preview

Hull City host Newcastle United in front of their own fans, and the Goexch numbers lean towards Newcastle. The expected-goals gap (1.03 for Hull, 2.33 for Newcastle) is the clearest signal, and it is where our 66% for Newcastle comes from. Hull's best chance is to keep it level into the last 30 minutes, when the draw becomes a real possibility.

Calendar

Calendar check: Hull and Newcastle

Recovery time and the next fixture for both clubs, from the published Premier League schedule.

Hull play 7 days after their game away at Brentford on 23 May. This closes their league season. League game 38 of 38.

Newcastle play 7 days after their game at home to Palace on 23 May. This closes their league season. League game 38 of 38.

These sides already met at St James' Park on Sat, 19 Sept 2026, making this the return fixture.

  1. 23 MayBrentford vs HullGtech Community Stadium
  2. 23 MayNewcastle vs PalaceSt James' Park
  3. 30 MayHull vs NewcastleMKM Stadium

Keep reading

More Hull and Newcastle predictions

  1. 30 MayArsenal vs Brighton & Hove AlbionPremier League · 19:30 IST
  2. 30 MayAston Villa vs Tottenham HotspurPremier League · 19:30 IST
  3. 30 MayChelsea vs BrentfordPremier League · 19:30 IST
  4. 30 MayCoventry City vs Nottingham ForestPremier League · 19:30 IST
  5. 30 MayCrystal Palace vs Leeds UnitedPremier League · 19:30 IST
  6. 30 MayIpswich Town vs EvertonPremier League · 19:30 IST

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FAQ · 9

Hull City vs Newcastle United FAQs

Short, direct answers to the questions fans ask most.

Still unsure? Ask the Goexch team on WhatsApp

Who will win Hull vs Newcastle?

Goexch predicts Newcastle United to win. Our goals model gives Hull 15%, the draw 19% and Newcastle 66%, which we class as a strong lean.

What is the predicted score for Hull City vs Newcastle United?

Our predicted score is 1-2, with 0-1 at half-time. The most common exact score across our simulations is 1-2, at 10%.

What are the fair odds for Hull vs Newcastle?

On our numbers: Hull 6.67, draw 5.26, Newcastle 1.52. A back price shorter than that has no value on our model.

What time does Hull City vs Newcastle United kick off in India?

19:30 IST IST on Sun, 30 May 2027 (15:00 in the UK), at MKM Stadium in Hull. Kick-offs can move for TV, so check again closer to the day.

How do I trade Hull vs Newcastle on the Goexch exchange?

On our numbers, back Newcastle United at 1.52 or bigger, or lay Hull City at 6.67 or smaller. Laying means you win if Hull City do not win; at 6.67, a ₹100 lay risks ₹567. Prices move before and during the match, so check the live back and lay odds first.

Hull vs Newcastle match kaun jeetega?

Goexch goals model mein Newcastle United aage hain: Hull 15%, draw 19%, Newcastle 66%. Sabse sambhav score 1-2 hai. Yeh sirf anumaan hai, guarantee nahi.

Will both teams score in Hull vs Newcastle?

We put both teams to score at 58%, so we lean yes. Over 2.5 goals is 65%.

Where can I watch Hull vs Newcastle?

Indian TV rights change between seasons, so check the official Premier League listings near the day.

How many goals are expected in Hull vs Newcastle?

3.4 expected goals in total. The most likely number of goals is 5, and a 0-0 comes up 3% of the time.

Dates and kick-off times follow the published Premier League fixture list and can move for TV or cup commitments. Win percentages, projected scores and picks on this page come from the Goexch model, built on team strength, venue history and conditions. They are estimates, not guarantees, and bets are settled on the live exchange odds you take. 18+ only. Set a budget before you bet and play responsibly.

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