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FootballPremier League · North London derby

Arsenal vs Tottenham Hotspur prediction

By Goexch Football Desk, Premier League analysisUpdated

Goexch verdictClear lean

Arsenal are our pick (clear lean). The Goexch goals model gives them a 58% chance to win, a fair back price of 1.72, with the draw at 25%. We expect 2.4 goals and a 1-0 score, and both teams score in 43% of simulations. Kick-off: Sat, 01 May 2027, 19:30 IST IST at Emirates Stadium.

Exchange view

Fair prices

  1. ArsenalPick

    58%
    Back1.72Lay1.72

  2. Draw

    25%
    Back4.00Lay4.00

  3. Tottenham Hotspur

    17%
    Back5.88Lay5.88
Start
19:30
IST
Date
Sat, 01 May 2027 · 15:00 UK
Venue
Emirates Stadium, London

Back at the gold price or bigger, lay at it or smaller.

Quick read

Arsenal vs Spurs in brief

  • Arsenal 58%, draw 25%, Spurs 17%, which makes this a clear lean.
  • Predicted score 1-0, with a low-scoring game likely (2.4 xG).
  • This is the North London derby, so expect more cards and fewer clear chances.
Predicted score
1-0
Goexch pick
Arsenal
UK broadcast
Not televised yet
Projected cards
4.5-5.5

Exchange plan

How should you trade Arsenal vs Spurs on Goexch?

Our fair prices for the pick and the outsider. Laying the outsider wins if the favourite wins or it ends in a draw.

  1. Back58% chance

    Arsenal1.72

    Take 1.72 or bigger. A ₹100 back at 1.72 returns ₹172, stake included.

  2. Lay17% chance

    Tottenham Hotspur5.88

    Lay only at 5.88 or smaller. At 5.88, a ₹100 lay risks ₹488 to win ₹100.

Key factors

What will decide this match?

Home advantage first, then expected goals and the factor with the most influence on this match.

  1. Home advantage

    Edge: Arsenal

    Arsenal are the stronger side and at home, which our model values at just over a fifth of a goal. Both advantages add up.

  2. Expected goals

    Edge: Few goals

    With only 2.4 expected goals, the under is the natural lean. Over 2.5 lands just 43% of the time.

  3. Derby intensity

    Edge: Draw

    The North London derby brings extra intensity, more fouls and a projected 4.5-5.5 cards. Derbies often finish closer than the league table suggests.

Goals model

How many goals will there be in Arsenal vs Spurs?

Our model's chance of each goal total, with the most likely outcome in gold.

012345+

total goals

Both teams score
43%
Over 2.5 goals
43%
Expected goals
1.64 – 0.76
Half-time call
0-0

Team set-up

How will the two teams line up?

Confirmed line-ups are published about an hour before kick-off.

Home

Arsenal

Arsenal are built to dominate the ball. They should have most of the possession at Emirates Stadium and keep Spurs pinned in their own half for long spells.

Away

Tottenham Hotspur

Spurs are organised and hard to break down, and they usually get results on their trip to Emirates Stadium by winning the midfield.

Risk radar

What could change the prediction?

The news that would move our numbers before kick-off.

  • If Arsenal name a weakened XI

    Rotation or a missing key player would cut several points from their win chance. Line-ups are out an hour before kick-off.

  • If Spurs score first

    The favourite has to chase the game, and both the draw and the upset become much more likely.

  • If a red card comes in the first hour

    Going down to ten men changes the expected-goals picture completely, whichever side it hits.

Preview

Arsenal vs Spurs match preview

Tottenham Hotspur visit Emirates Stadium in a 2026/27 Premier League match that the Goexch model rates as a clear lean. Because this is the North London derby, form counts for less than usual, and we have pulled the numbers closer together to reflect that. We project 1.64 expected goals for Arsenal and 0.76 for Spurs. Across thousands of simulated matches, Arsenal win 58% of them. An early goal would change everything for Spurs. Teams chasing a game leave gaps, and that is where upsets come from.

Calendar

Calendar check: Arsenal and Spurs

Recovery time and the next fixture for both clubs, from the published Premier League schedule.

Arsenal play 7 days after their game away at Bournemouth on 24 Apr. After this, they go away at Leeds 7 days after this one. League game 34 of 38.

Spurs play 7 days after their game at home to Hull on 24 Apr. After this, they go at home to Chelsea 7 days after this one. League game 34 of 38.

These sides already met at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium on Sat, 05 Dec 2026, making this the return fixture.

  1. 24 AprBournemouth vs ArsenalVitality Stadium
  2. 24 AprSpurs vs HullTottenham Hotspur Stadium
  3. 01 MayArsenal vs SpursEmirates Stadium
  4. 08 MayLeeds vs ArsenalElland Road
  5. 08 MaySpurs vs ChelseaTottenham Hotspur Stadium

Keep reading

More Arsenal and Spurs predictions

  1. 05 DecTottenham Hotspur vs ArsenalPremier League · 20:30 IST
  2. 08 MayLeeds United vs ArsenalPremier League · 19:30 IST
  3. 15 MayArsenal vs Nottingham ForestPremier League · 19:30 IST
  4. 08 MayTottenham Hotspur vs ChelseaPremier League · 19:30 IST
  5. 15 MayCoventry City vs Tottenham HotspurPremier League · 19:30 IST
  6. 01 MayBrighton & Hove Albion vs Nottingham ForestPremier League · 19:30 IST

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FAQ · 9

Arsenal vs Tottenham Hotspur FAQs

Short, direct answers to the questions fans ask most.

Still unsure? Ask the Goexch team on WhatsApp

Who will win Arsenal vs Spurs?

Goexch predicts Arsenal to win. Our goals model gives Arsenal 58%, the draw 25% and Spurs 17%, which we class as a clear lean.

What is the predicted score for Arsenal vs Tottenham Hotspur?

Our predicted score is 1-0, with 0-0 at half-time. The most common exact score across our simulations is 1-0, at 15%.

What are the fair odds for Arsenal vs Spurs?

On our numbers: Arsenal 1.72, draw 4.00, Spurs 5.88. A back price shorter than that has no value on our model.

What time does Arsenal vs Tottenham Hotspur kick off in India?

19:30 IST IST on Sat, 01 May 2027 (15:00 in the UK), at Emirates Stadium in London. Kick-offs can move for TV, so check again closer to the day.

How do I trade Arsenal vs Spurs on the Goexch exchange?

On our numbers, back Arsenal at 1.72 or bigger, or lay Tottenham Hotspur at 5.88 or smaller. Laying means you win if Tottenham Hotspur do not win; at 5.88, a ₹100 lay risks ₹488. Prices move before and during the match, so check the live back and lay odds first.

Arsenal vs Spurs match kaun jeetega?

Goexch goals model mein Arsenal aage hain: Arsenal 58%, draw 25%, Spurs 17%. Sabse sambhav score 1-0 hai. Yeh sirf anumaan hai, guarantee nahi.

Will both teams score in Arsenal vs Spurs?

We put both teams to score at 43%, so we lean no. Over 2.5 goals is 43%.

Where can I watch Arsenal vs Spurs?

Indian TV rights change between seasons, so check the official Premier League listings near the day.

How many goals are expected in Arsenal vs Spurs?

2.4 expected goals in total. The most likely number of goals is 2, and a 0-0 comes up 9% of the time.

Dates and kick-off times follow the published Premier League fixture list and can move for TV or cup commitments. Win percentages, projected scores and picks on this page come from the Goexch model, built on team strength, venue history and conditions. They are estimates, not guarantees, and bets are settled on the live exchange odds you take. 18+ only. Set a budget before you bet and play responsibly.

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