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FootballPremier League · North London derby

Tottenham Hotspur vs Arsenal prediction

By Goexch Football Desk, Premier League analysisUpdated

Goexch verdictCoin flip

Too close to call, with a slight lean to Arsenal. The Goexch goals model gives Spurs 36%, the draw 27% and Arsenal 37%, and expects 2.4 goals in total. Our most likely score is 0-1. Kick-off: Sat, 05 Dec 2026, 20:30 IST IST at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.

Exchange view

Fair prices

  1. Tottenham Hotspur

    36%
    Back2.78Lay2.78

  2. Draw

    27%
    Back3.70Lay3.70

  3. ArsenalPick

    37%
    Back2.70Lay2.70
Start
20:30
IST
Date
Sat, 05 Dec 2026 · 15:00 UK
Venue
Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London

Back at the gold price or bigger, lay at it or smaller.

Quick read

Spurs vs Arsenal in brief

  • Arsenal 37%, draw 27%, Spurs 36%, which makes this a coin flip.
  • Predicted score 0-1, with a low-scoring game likely (2.4 xG).
  • This is the North London derby, so expect more cards and fewer clear chances.
Predicted score
0-1
Goexch pick
Arsenal
UK broadcast
Not televised yet
Projected cards
4.5-5.5

Exchange plan

How should you trade Spurs vs Arsenal on Goexch?

Our fair prices for the pick and the outsider. Laying the outsider wins if the favourite wins or it ends in a draw.

  1. Back37% chance

    Arsenal2.70

    Take 2.70 or bigger. A ₹100 back at 2.70 returns ₹270, stake included.

  2. Lay36% chance

    Tottenham Hotspur2.78

    Lay only at 2.78 or smaller. At 2.78, a ₹100 lay risks ₹178 to win ₹100.

Key factors

What will decide this match?

Home advantage first, then expected goals and the factor with the most influence on this match.

  1. Home advantage

    Edge: Even

    Home support is worth about a fifth of a goal to Spurs. That narrows the gap but does not cancel Arsenal's extra quality.

  2. Expected goals

    Edge: Few goals

    With only 2.4 expected goals, the under is the natural lean. Over 2.5 lands just 44% of the time.

  3. Derby intensity

    Edge: Draw

    The North London derby brings extra intensity, more fouls and a projected 4.5-5.5 cards. Derbies often finish closer than the league table suggests.

Goals model

How many goals will there be in Spurs vs Arsenal?

Our model's chance of each goal total, with the most likely outcome in gold.

012345+

total goals

Both teams score
50%
Over 2.5 goals
44%
Expected goals
1.21 – 1.22
Half-time call
0-0

Team set-up

How will the two teams line up?

Confirmed line-ups are published about an hour before kick-off.

Home

Tottenham Hotspur

Spurs are organised and hard to break down, and they usually get results at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium by winning the midfield.

Away

Arsenal

Arsenal are built to dominate the ball. They should have most of the possession on their trip to Tottenham Hotspur Stadium and keep Spurs pinned in their own half for long spells.

Risk radar

What could change the prediction?

The news that would move our numbers before kick-off.

  • If Arsenal name a weakened XI

    Rotation or a missing key player would cut several points from their win chance. Line-ups are out an hour before kick-off.

  • If Spurs score first

    The favourite has to chase the game, and both the draw and the upset become much more likely.

  • If a red card comes in the first hour

    Going down to ten men changes the expected-goals picture completely, whichever side it hits.

Preview

Spurs vs Arsenal match preview

Arsenal visit Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in a 2026/27 Premier League match that the Goexch model rates as a coin flip. Because this is the North London derby, form counts for less than usual, and we have pulled the numbers closer together to reflect that. We project 1.21 expected goals for Spurs and 1.22 for Arsenal. Across thousands of simulated matches, Arsenal win 37% of them. An early goal would change everything for Spurs. Teams chasing a game leave gaps, and that is where upsets come from.

Calendar

Calendar check: Spurs and Arsenal

Recovery time and the next fixture for both clubs, from the published Premier League schedule.

Spurs play 3 days after their game at home to Fulham on 02 Dec, so tired legs could show late on. After this, they go away at Hull 7 days after this one. League game 14 of 38.

Arsenal play 3 days after their game away at Brentford on 02 Dec, so tired legs could show late on. After this, they go at home to Bournemouth 7 days after this one. League game 14 of 38.

They meet again at Emirates Stadium on Sat, 01 May 2027, so this is the first of two league meetings.

  1. 02 DecSpurs vs FulhamTottenham Hotspur Stadium
  2. 02 DecBrentford vs ArsenalGtech Community Stadium
  3. 05 DecSpurs vs ArsenalTottenham Hotspur Stadium
  4. 12 DecHull vs SpursMKM Stadium
  5. 12 DecArsenal vs BournemouthEmirates Stadium

Keep reading

More Spurs and Arsenal predictions

  1. 01 MayArsenal vs Tottenham HotspurPremier League · 19:30 IST
  2. 12 DecHull City vs Tottenham HotspurPremier League · 20:30 IST
  3. 19 DecLiverpool vs Tottenham HotspurPremier League · 20:30 IST
  4. 12 DecArsenal vs AFC BournemouthPremier League · 20:30 IST
  5. 19 DecArsenal vs Manchester UnitedPremier League · 20:30 IST
  6. 05 DecAFC Bournemouth vs Hull CityPremier League · 20:30 IST

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FAQ · 9

Tottenham Hotspur vs Arsenal FAQs

Short, direct answers to the questions fans ask most.

Still unsure? Ask the Goexch team on WhatsApp

Who will win Spurs vs Arsenal?

Goexch predicts Arsenal to win. Our goals model gives Spurs 36%, the draw 27% and Arsenal 37%, which we class as a coin flip.

What is the predicted score for Tottenham Hotspur vs Arsenal?

Our predicted score is 0-1, with 0-0 at half-time. The most common exact score across our simulations is 1-1, at 13%.

What are the fair odds for Spurs vs Arsenal?

On our numbers: Spurs 2.78, draw 3.70, Arsenal 2.70. A back price shorter than that has no value on our model.

What time does Tottenham Hotspur vs Arsenal kick off in India?

20:30 IST IST on Sat, 05 Dec 2026 (15:00 in the UK), at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London. Kick-offs can move for TV, so check again closer to the day.

How do I trade Spurs vs Arsenal on the Goexch exchange?

On our numbers, back Arsenal at 2.70 or bigger, or lay Tottenham Hotspur at 2.78 or smaller. Laying means you win if Tottenham Hotspur do not win; at 2.78, a ₹100 lay risks ₹178. Prices move before and during the match, so check the live back and lay odds first.

Spurs vs Arsenal match kaun jeetega?

Goexch goals model mein Arsenal aage hain: Spurs 36%, draw 27%, Arsenal 37%. Sabse sambhav score 0-1 hai. Yeh sirf anumaan hai, guarantee nahi.

Is betting on the Premier League legal in India?

Online betting rules in India are set at both the central and state level, and the Promotion and Regulation of Online Gaming Act, 2025 restricts online real-money games. Check the law that applies where you live before you play. This is general information, not legal advice, and you must be 18 or older.

How many goals are expected in Spurs vs Arsenal?

2.4 expected goals in total. The most likely number of goals is 2, and a 0-0 comes up 9% of the time.

Will both teams score in Spurs vs Arsenal?

We put both teams to score at 50%, so we lean yes. Over 2.5 goals is 44%.

Dates and kick-off times follow the published Premier League fixture list and can move for TV or cup commitments. Win percentages, projected scores and picks on this page come from the Goexch model, built on team strength, venue history and conditions. They are estimates, not guarantees, and bets are settled on the live exchange odds you take. 18+ only. Set a budget before you bet and play responsibly.

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