FootballPremier League 2026/27

Aston Villa vs Hull City prediction

By Goexch Football Desk, Premier League analysisUpdated 14 Oct 2026

Goexch verdictStrong lean

Goexch backs Aston Villa in Villa vs Hull, with a 81% win chance (strong lean). The model's most likely score is 2-0, the draw is 13%, both teams score 43% of the time and over 2.5 goals lands 64% of the time. Kick-off: Sat, 13 Mar 2027, 20:30 IST IST at Villa Park.

Exchange view

Fair prices

Aston VillaPick
81%
Back1.23Lay1.23
Draw
13%
Back7.69Lay7.69
Hull City
6%
Back16.67Lay16.67

Start: 20:30; IST
Date: Sat, 13 Mar 2027 · 15:00 UK
Venue: Villa Park, Birmingham

Back at the gold price or bigger, lay at it or smaller.

Quick read

Villa vs Hull in brief

Villa 81%, draw 13%, Hull 6%, which makes this a strong lean.
Predicted score 2-0, with goals expected (3.3 xG).
Both teams to score: 43% on our model.

Predicted score: 2-0
Goexch pick: Villa
UK broadcast: Not televised yet
Projected cards: 3.5-4.5

Exchange plan

How should you trade Villa vs Hull on Goexch?

Our fair prices for the pick and the outsider. Laying the outsider wins if the favourite wins or it ends in a draw.

Back81% chance
Aston Villa1.23
Take 1.23 or bigger. A ₹100 back at 1.23 returns ₹123, stake included.
Lay6% chance
Hull City16.67
Lay only at 16.67 or smaller. At 16.67, a ₹100 lay risks ₹1567 to win ₹100.

Key factors

What will decide this match?

Home advantage first, then expected goals and the factor with the most influence on this match.

Home advantage
Edge: Villa
Villa are the stronger side and at home, which our model values at just over a fifth of a goal. Both advantages add up.
Expected goals
Edge: Goals
3.3 expected goals is above the league average, and over 2.5 goals lands 64% of the time in our simulations.
Quality gap
Edge: Villa
Villa rate clearly higher and the draw is only 13%. If they score first, the match should go their way.

Goals model

How many goals will there be in Villa vs Hull?

Our model's chance of each goal total, with the most likely outcome in gold.

12%

20%

22%

18%

24%

012345+

total goals

Both teams score: 43%
Over 2.5 goals: 64%
Expected goals: 2.70 – 0.61
Half-time call: 1-0

Market menu

Three tickets from safest to riskiest, each with our chance and the fair odds it needs.

Anchor
Draw no bet
Back Villa
Chance93%Fair odds1.08
You get your stake back if it ends level, so only a Hull win loses.
Value
Total goals
Over 2.5
Chance64%Fair odds1.56
3.3 expected goals goes over the 2.5 line more often than not.
Long shot
Correct score
Villa 2-0 Hull
Chance13%Fair odds7.69
The model's most likely score. Correct-score markets pay well but rarely land, so keep the stake small.

Team set-up

How will the two teams line up?

Confirmed line-ups are published about an hour before kick-off.

Home

Aston Villa

Villa are well drilled and have enough quality up front to punish mistakes at Villa Park. Everything they do starts with control of midfield.

Away · promoted

Hull City

As a promoted club, Hull will focus on keeping it tight on their trip to Villa Park. Their best chances tend to come from corners, free kicks and quick breaks.

Risk radar

What could change the prediction?

The news that would move our numbers before kick-off.

If Villa name a weakened XI
Rotation or a missing key player would cut several points from their win chance. Line-ups are out an hour before kick-off.
If Hull score first
The favourite has to chase the game, and both the draw and the upset become much more likely.
If a red card comes in the first hour
Going down to ten men changes the expected-goals picture completely, whichever side it hits.

Preview

Villa vs Hull match preview

Aston Villa host Hull City in front of their own fans, and the Goexch numbers lean towards Villa. The expected-goals gap (2.70 for Villa, 0.61 for Hull) is the clearest signal, and it is where our 81% for Villa comes from. Hull's best chance is to keep it level into the last 30 minutes, when the draw becomes a real possibility.

Calendar

Calendar check: Villa and Hull

Recovery time and the next fixture for both clubs, from the published Premier League schedule.

Villa play 10 days after their game away at Liverpool on 03 Mar. After this, they go away at Forest 7 days after this one. League game 29 of 38.

Hull play 10 days after their game away at Leeds on 03 Mar. After this, they go at home to Chelsea 7 days after this one. League game 29 of 38.

These sides already met at MKM Stadium on Sat, 05 Sept 2026, making this the return fixture.

Keep reading

Back or lay it live

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FAQ · 9

Aston Villa vs Hull City FAQs

Short, direct answers to the questions fans ask most.

Still unsure? Ask the Goexch team on WhatsApp

Who will win Villa vs Hull?

Goexch predicts Aston Villa to win. Our goals model gives Villa 81%, the draw 13% and Hull 6%, which we class as a strong lean.

What is the predicted score for Aston Villa vs Hull City?

Our predicted score is 2-0, with 1-0 at half-time. The most common exact score across our simulations is 2-0, at 13%.

What are the fair odds for Villa vs Hull?

On our numbers: Villa 1.23, draw 7.69, Hull 16.67. A back price shorter than that has no value on our model.

What time does Aston Villa vs Hull City kick off in India?

20:30 IST IST on Sat, 13 Mar 2027 (15:00 in the UK), at Villa Park in Birmingham. Kick-offs can move for TV, so check again closer to the day.

How do I trade Villa vs Hull on the Goexch exchange?

On our numbers, back Aston Villa at 1.23 or bigger, or lay Hull City at 16.67 or smaller. Laying means you win if Hull City do not win; at 16.67, a ₹100 lay risks ₹1567. Prices move before and during the match, so check the live back and lay odds first.

Villa vs Hull match kaun jeetega?

Goexch goals model mein Aston Villa aage hain: Villa 81%, draw 13%, Hull 6%. Sabse sambhav score 2-0 hai. Yeh sirf anumaan hai, guarantee nahi.

Is betting on the Premier League legal in India?

Online betting rules in India are set at both the central and state level, and the Promotion and Regulation of Online Gaming Act, 2025 restricts online real-money games. Check the law that applies where you live before you play. This is general information, not legal advice, and you must be 18 or older.

Where can I watch Villa vs Hull?

Indian TV rights change between seasons, so check the official Premier League listings near the day.

Will both teams score in Villa vs Hull?

We put both teams to score at 43%, so we lean no. Over 2.5 goals is 64%.

Dates and kick-off times follow the published Premier League fixture list and can move for TV or cup commitments. Win percentages, projected scores and picks on this page come from the Goexch model, built on team strength, venue history and conditions. They are estimates, not guarantees, and bets are settled on the live exchange odds you take. 18+ only. Set a budget before you bet and play responsibly.

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