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FootballPremier League 2026/27

Liverpool vs Aston Villa prediction

By Goexch Football Desk, Premier League analysisUpdated

Goexch verdictStrong lean

Goexch backs Liverpool in Liverpool vs Villa, with a 68% win chance (strong lean). The model's most likely score is 2-0, the draw is 19%, both teams score 49% of the time and over 2.5 goals lands 57% of the time. Kick-off: Wed, 03 Mar 2027, 01:30 IST, next day IST at Anfield.

Exchange view

Fair prices

  1. LiverpoolPick

    68%
    Back1.47Lay1.47

  2. Draw

    19%
    Back5.26Lay5.26

  3. Aston Villa

    13%
    Back7.69Lay7.69
Start
01:30
IST
Date
Wed, 03 Mar 2027 · 20:00 UK
Venue
Anfield, Liverpool

Back at the gold price or bigger, lay at it or smaller.

Quick read

Liverpool vs Villa in brief

  • Liverpool 68%, draw 19%, Villa 13%, which makes this a strong lean.
  • Predicted score 2-0, with goals expected (3.0 xG).
  • Both teams to score: 49% on our model.
Predicted score
2-0
Goexch pick
Liverpool
UK broadcast
Not televised yet
Projected cards
3.5-4.5

Exchange plan

How should you trade Liverpool vs Villa on Goexch?

Our fair prices for the pick and the outsider. Laying the outsider wins if the favourite wins or it ends in a draw.

  1. Back68% chance

    Liverpool1.47

    Take 1.47 or bigger. A ₹100 back at 1.47 returns ₹147, stake included.

  2. Lay13% chance

    Aston Villa7.69

    Lay only at 7.69 or smaller. At 7.69, a ₹100 lay risks ₹669 to win ₹100.

Key factors

What will decide this match?

Home advantage first, then expected goals and the factor with the most influence on this match.

  1. Home advantage

    Edge: Liverpool

    Liverpool are the stronger side and at home, which our model values at just over a fifth of a goal. Both advantages add up.

  2. Expected goals

    Edge: Goals

    3.0 expected goals is above the league average, and over 2.5 goals lands 57% of the time in our simulations.

  3. Quality gap

    Edge: Liverpool

    Liverpool rate clearly higher and the draw is only 19%. If they score first, the match should go their way.

Goals model

How many goals will there be in Liverpool vs Villa?

Our model's chance of each goal total, with the most likely outcome in gold.

012345+

total goals

Both teams score
49%
Over 2.5 goals
57%
Expected goals
2.14 – 0.81
Half-time call
0-0

Team set-up

How will the two teams line up?

Confirmed line-ups are published about an hour before kick-off.

Home

Liverpool

Liverpool are built to dominate the ball. They should have most of the possession at Anfield and keep Villa pinned in their own half for long spells.

Away

Aston Villa

Villa are organised and hard to break down, and they usually get results on their trip to Anfield by winning the midfield.

Risk radar

What could change the prediction?

The news that would move our numbers before kick-off.

  • If Liverpool name a weakened XI

    Rotation or a missing key player would cut several points from their win chance. Line-ups are out an hour before kick-off.

  • If Villa score first

    The favourite has to chase the game, and both the draw and the upset become much more likely.

  • If a red card comes in the first hour

    Going down to ten men changes the expected-goals picture completely, whichever side it hits.

Preview

Liverpool vs Villa match preview

Aston Villa visit Anfield in a 2026/27 Premier League match that the Goexch model rates as a strong lean. We project 2.14 expected goals for Liverpool and 0.81 for Villa. Across thousands of simulated matches, Liverpool win 68% of them. An early goal would change everything for Villa. Teams chasing a game leave gaps, and that is where upsets come from.

Calendar

Calendar check: Liverpool and Villa

Recovery time and the next fixture for both clubs, from the published Premier League schedule.

Liverpool play 4 days after their game away at Spurs on 27 Feb. After this, they go at home to Ipswich 10 days after this one. League game 28 of 38.

Villa play 4 days after their game at home to Chelsea on 27 Feb. After this, they go at home to Hull 10 days after this one. League game 28 of 38.

These sides already met at Villa Park on Wed, 30 Dec 2026, making this the return fixture.

  1. 27 FebSpurs vs LiverpoolTottenham Hotspur Stadium
  2. 27 FebVilla vs ChelseaVilla Park
  3. 03 MarLiverpool vs VillaAnfield
  4. 13 MarLiverpool vs IpswichAnfield
  5. 13 MarVilla vs HullVilla Park

Keep reading

More Liverpool and Villa predictions

  1. 30 DecAston Villa vs LiverpoolPremier League · 01:45 IST, next day
  2. 13 MarLiverpool vs Ipswich TownPremier League · 20:30 IST
  3. 20 MarFulham vs LiverpoolPremier League · 20:30 IST
  4. 13 MarAston Villa vs Hull CityPremier League · 20:30 IST
  5. 20 MarNottingham Forest vs Aston VillaPremier League · 20:30 IST
  6. 03 MarAFC Bournemouth vs Tottenham HotspurPremier League · 01:30 IST, next day

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FAQ · 9

Liverpool vs Aston Villa FAQs

Short, direct answers to the questions fans ask most.

Still unsure? Ask the Goexch team on WhatsApp

Who will win Liverpool vs Villa?

Goexch predicts Liverpool to win. Our goals model gives Liverpool 68%, the draw 19% and Villa 13%, which we class as a strong lean.

What is the predicted score for Liverpool vs Aston Villa?

Our predicted score is 2-0, with 0-0 at half-time. The most common exact score across our simulations is 2-0, at 12%.

What are the fair odds for Liverpool vs Villa?

On our numbers: Liverpool 1.47, draw 5.26, Villa 7.69. A back price shorter than that has no value on our model.

What time does Liverpool vs Aston Villa kick off in India?

01:30 IST, next day IST on Wed, 03 Mar 2027 (20:00 in the UK), at Anfield in Liverpool. Kick-offs can move for TV, so check again closer to the day.

How do I trade Liverpool vs Villa on the Goexch exchange?

On our numbers, back Liverpool at 1.47 or bigger, or lay Aston Villa at 7.69 or smaller. Laying means you win if Aston Villa do not win; at 7.69, a ₹100 lay risks ₹669. Prices move before and during the match, so check the live back and lay odds first.

Liverpool vs Villa match kaun jeetega?

Goexch goals model mein Liverpool aage hain: Liverpool 68%, draw 19%, Villa 13%. Sabse sambhav score 2-0 hai. Yeh sirf anumaan hai, guarantee nahi.

Will both teams score in Liverpool vs Villa?

We put both teams to score at 49%, so we lean no. Over 2.5 goals is 57%.

Can Villa cause an upset?

Yes, with an early goal, a disciplined defence and a quiet day for Liverpool's attack. We give Villa a 13% chance.

Is betting on the Premier League legal in India?

Online betting rules in India are set at both the central and state level, and the Promotion and Regulation of Online Gaming Act, 2025 restricts online real-money games. Check the law that applies where you live before you play. This is general information, not legal advice, and you must be 18 or older.

Dates and kick-off times follow the published Premier League fixture list and can move for TV or cup commitments. Win percentages, projected scores and picks on this page come from the Goexch model, built on team strength, venue history and conditions. They are estimates, not guarantees, and bets are settled on the live exchange odds you take. 18+ only. Set a budget before you bet and play responsibly.

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