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FootballPremier League 2026/27

Hull City vs Arsenal prediction

By Goexch Football Desk, Premier League analysisUpdated

Goexch verdictStrong lean

Goexch backs Arsenal in Hull vs Arsenal, with a 75% win chance (strong lean). The model's most likely score is 0-2, the draw is 15%, both teams score 54% of the time and over 2.5 goals lands 69% of the time. Kick-off: Sat, 16 Jan 2027, 20:30 IST IST at MKM Stadium.

Exchange view

Fair prices

  1. Hull City

    10%
    Back10.00Lay10.00

  2. Draw

    15%
    Back6.67Lay6.67

  3. ArsenalPick

    75%
    Back1.33Lay1.33
Start
20:30
IST
Date
Sat, 16 Jan 2027 · 15:00 UK
Venue
MKM Stadium, Hull

Back at the gold price or bigger, lay at it or smaller.

Quick read

Hull vs Arsenal in brief

  • Arsenal 75%, draw 15%, Hull 10%, which makes this a strong lean.
  • Predicted score 0-2, with goals expected (3.5 xG).
  • Both teams to score: 54% on our model.
Predicted score
0-2
Goexch pick
Arsenal
UK broadcast
Not televised yet
Projected cards
3.5-4.5

Exchange plan

How should you trade Hull vs Arsenal on Goexch?

Our fair prices for the pick and the outsider. Laying the outsider wins if the favourite wins or it ends in a draw.

  1. Back75% chance

    Arsenal1.33

    Take 1.33 or bigger. A ₹100 back at 1.33 returns ₹133, stake included.

  2. Lay10% chance

    Hull City10.00

    Lay only at 10.00 or smaller. At 10.00, a ₹100 lay risks ₹900 to win ₹100.

Key factors

What will decide this match?

Home advantage first, then expected goals and the factor with the most influence on this match.

  1. Home advantage

    Edge: Even

    Home support is worth about a fifth of a goal to Hull. That narrows the gap but does not cancel Arsenal's extra quality.

  2. Expected goals

    Edge: Goals

    3.5 expected goals is above the league average, and over 2.5 goals lands 69% of the time in our simulations.

  3. Quality gap

    Edge: Arsenal

    Arsenal rate clearly higher and the draw is only 15%. If they score first, the match should go their way.

Goals model

How many goals will there be in Hull vs Arsenal?

Our model's chance of each goal total, with the most likely outcome in gold.

012345+

total goals

Both teams score
54%
Over 2.5 goals
69%
Expected goals
0.88 – 2.66
Half-time call
0-1

Team set-up

How will the two teams line up?

Confirmed line-ups are published about an hour before kick-off.

Home · promoted

Hull City

As a promoted club, Hull will focus on keeping it tight at MKM Stadium. Their best chances tend to come from corners, free kicks and quick breaks.

Away

Arsenal

Arsenal have a squad deep enough to challenge for the title. They squeeze opponents on their trip to MKM Stadium, so Hull will need a disciplined low block to stay in the game.

Risk radar

What could change the prediction?

The news that would move our numbers before kick-off.

  • If Arsenal name a weakened XI

    Rotation or a missing key player would cut several points from their win chance. Line-ups are out an hour before kick-off.

  • If Hull score first

    The favourite has to chase the game, and both the draw and the upset become much more likely.

  • If a red card comes in the first hour

    Going down to ten men changes the expected-goals picture completely, whichever side it hits.

Preview

Hull vs Arsenal match preview

Hull City host Arsenal in front of their own fans, and the Goexch numbers lean towards Arsenal. The expected-goals gap (0.88 for Hull, 2.66 for Arsenal) is the clearest signal, and it is where our 75% for Arsenal comes from. Hull's best chance is to keep it level into the last 30 minutes, when the draw becomes a real possibility.

Calendar

Calendar check: Hull and Arsenal

Recovery time and the next fixture for both clubs, from the published Premier League schedule.

Hull play 11 days after their game away at Forest on 05 Jan. After this, they go away at Ipswich 7 days after this one. League game 21 of 38.

Arsenal play 11 days after their game at home to Brentford on 05 Jan. After this, they go at home to Newcastle 7 days after this one. League game 21 of 38.

These sides already met at Emirates Stadium on Sat, 07 Nov 2026, making this the return fixture.

  1. 05 JanForest vs HullCity Ground
  2. 05 JanArsenal vs BrentfordEmirates Stadium
  3. 16 JanHull vs ArsenalMKM Stadium
  4. 23 JanIpswich vs HullPortman Road
  5. 23 JanArsenal vs NewcastleEmirates Stadium

Keep reading

More Hull and Arsenal predictions

  1. 07 NovArsenal vs Hull CityPremier League · 20:30 IST
  2. 23 JanIpswich Town vs Hull CityPremier League · 20:30 IST
  3. 30 JanHull City vs Crystal PalacePremier League · 20:30 IST
  4. 23 JanArsenal vs Newcastle UnitedPremier League · 20:30 IST
  5. 30 JanManchester City vs ArsenalPremier League · 20:30 IST
  6. 16 JanAFC Bournemouth vs Ipswich TownPremier League · 20:30 IST

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FAQ · 9

Hull City vs Arsenal FAQs

Short, direct answers to the questions fans ask most.

Still unsure? Ask the Goexch team on WhatsApp

Who will win Hull vs Arsenal?

Goexch predicts Arsenal to win. Our goals model gives Hull 10%, the draw 15% and Arsenal 75%, which we class as a strong lean.

What is the predicted score for Hull City vs Arsenal?

Our predicted score is 0-2, with 0-1 at half-time. The most common exact score across our simulations is 0-2, at 10%.

What are the fair odds for Hull vs Arsenal?

On our numbers: Hull 10.00, draw 6.67, Arsenal 1.33. A back price shorter than that has no value on our model.

What time does Hull City vs Arsenal kick off in India?

20:30 IST IST on Sat, 16 Jan 2027 (15:00 in the UK), at MKM Stadium in Hull. Kick-offs can move for TV, so check again closer to the day.

How do I trade Hull vs Arsenal on the Goexch exchange?

On our numbers, back Arsenal at 1.33 or bigger, or lay Hull City at 10.00 or smaller. Laying means you win if Hull City do not win; at 10.00, a ₹100 lay risks ₹900. Prices move before and during the match, so check the live back and lay odds first.

Hull vs Arsenal match kaun jeetega?

Goexch goals model mein Arsenal aage hain: Hull 10%, draw 15%, Arsenal 75%. Sabse sambhav score 0-2 hai. Yeh sirf anumaan hai, guarantee nahi.

Where can I watch Hull vs Arsenal?

Indian TV rights change between seasons, so check the official Premier League listings near the day.

Can Hull cause an upset?

Yes, with an early goal, a disciplined defence and a quiet day for Arsenal's attack. We give Hull a 10% chance.

Will both teams score in Hull vs Arsenal?

We put both teams to score at 54%, so we lean yes. Over 2.5 goals is 69%.

Dates and kick-off times follow the published Premier League fixture list and can move for TV or cup commitments. Win percentages, projected scores and picks on this page come from the Goexch model, built on team strength, venue history and conditions. They are estimates, not guarantees, and bets are settled on the live exchange odds you take. 18+ only. Set a budget before you bet and play responsibly.

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