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FootballPremier League 2026/27

Liverpool vs Chelsea prediction

By Goexch Football Desk, Premier League analysisUpdated

Goexch verdictStrong lean

Goexch backs Liverpool in Liverpool vs Chelsea, with a 64% win chance (strong lean). The model's most likely score is 2-0, the draw is 21%, both teams score 50% of the time and over 2.5 goals lands 55% of the time. Kick-off: Sat, 01 May 2027, 19:30 IST IST at Anfield.

Exchange view

Fair prices

  1. LiverpoolPick

    64%
    Back1.56Lay1.56

  2. Draw

    21%
    Back4.76Lay4.76

  3. Chelsea

    15%
    Back6.67Lay6.67
Start
19:30
IST
Date
Sat, 01 May 2027 · 15:00 UK
Venue
Anfield, Liverpool

Back at the gold price or bigger, lay at it or smaller.

Quick read

Liverpool vs Chelsea in brief

  • Liverpool 64%, draw 21%, Chelsea 15%, which makes this a strong lean.
  • Predicted score 2-0, with goals expected (2.9 xG).
  • Both teams to score: 50% on our model.
Predicted score
2-0
Goexch pick
Liverpool
UK broadcast
Not televised yet
Projected cards
3.5-4.5

Exchange plan

How should you trade Liverpool vs Chelsea on Goexch?

Our fair prices for the pick and the outsider. Laying the outsider wins if the favourite wins or it ends in a draw.

  1. Back64% chance

    Liverpool1.56

    Take 1.56 or bigger. A ₹100 back at 1.56 returns ₹156, stake included.

  2. Lay15% chance

    Chelsea6.67

    Lay only at 6.67 or smaller. At 6.67, a ₹100 lay risks ₹567 to win ₹100.

Key factors

What will decide this match?

Home advantage first, then expected goals and the factor with the most influence on this match.

  1. Home advantage

    Edge: Liverpool

    Liverpool are the stronger side and at home, which our model values at just over a fifth of a goal. Both advantages add up.

  2. Expected goals

    Edge: Goals

    2.9 expected goals is above the league average, and over 2.5 goals lands 55% of the time in our simulations.

  3. Quality gap

    Edge: Liverpool

    Liverpool rate clearly higher and the draw is only 21%. If they score first, the match should go their way.

Goals model

How many goals will there be in Liverpool vs Chelsea?

Our model's chance of each goal total, with the most likely outcome in gold.

012345+

total goals

Both teams score
50%
Over 2.5 goals
55%
Expected goals
2.02 – 0.87
Half-time call
0-0

Team set-up

How will the two teams line up?

Confirmed line-ups are published about an hour before kick-off.

Home

Liverpool

Liverpool have a squad deep enough to challenge for the title. They squeeze opponents at Anfield, so Chelsea will need a disciplined low block to stay in the game.

Away

Chelsea

Chelsea are built to dominate the ball. They should have most of the possession on their trip to Anfield and keep Liverpool pinned in their own half for long spells.

Risk radar

What could change the prediction?

The news that would move our numbers before kick-off.

  • If Liverpool name a weakened XI

    Rotation or a missing key player would cut several points from their win chance. Line-ups are out an hour before kick-off.

  • If Chelsea score first

    The favourite has to chase the game, and both the draw and the upset become much more likely.

  • If a red card comes in the first hour

    Going down to ten men changes the expected-goals picture completely, whichever side it hits.

Preview

Liverpool vs Chelsea match preview

Liverpool host Chelsea in front of their own fans, and the Goexch numbers lean towards Liverpool. The expected-goals gap (2.02 for Liverpool, 0.87 for Chelsea) is the clearest signal, and it is where our 64% for Liverpool comes from. Chelsea's best chance is to keep it level into the last 30 minutes, when the draw becomes a real possibility.

Calendar

Calendar check: Liverpool and Chelsea

Recovery time and the next fixture for both clubs, from the published Premier League schedule.

Liverpool play 7 days after their game away at Leeds on 24 Apr. After this, they go away at Man City 7 days after this one. League game 34 of 38.

Chelsea play 7 days after their game at home to Man City on 24 Apr. After this, they go away at Spurs 7 days after this one. League game 34 of 38.

These sides already met at Stamford Bridge on Sat, 05 Dec 2026, making this the return fixture.

  1. 24 AprLeeds vs LiverpoolElland Road
  2. 24 AprChelsea vs Man CityStamford Bridge
  3. 01 MayLiverpool vs ChelseaAnfield
  4. 08 MayMan City vs LiverpoolEtihad Stadium
  5. 08 MaySpurs vs ChelseaTottenham Hotspur Stadium

Keep reading

More Liverpool and Chelsea predictions

  1. 05 DecChelsea vs LiverpoolPremier League · 20:30 IST
  2. 08 MayManchester City vs LiverpoolPremier League · 19:30 IST
  3. 15 MayLiverpool vs BrentfordPremier League · 19:30 IST
  4. 08 MayTottenham Hotspur vs ChelseaPremier League · 19:30 IST
  5. 15 MayChelsea vs EvertonPremier League · 19:30 IST
  6. 01 MayArsenal vs Tottenham HotspurPremier League · 19:30 IST

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FAQ · 9

Liverpool vs Chelsea FAQs

Short, direct answers to the questions fans ask most.

Still unsure? Ask the Goexch team on WhatsApp

Who will win Liverpool vs Chelsea?

Goexch predicts Liverpool to win. Our goals model gives Liverpool 64%, the draw 21% and Chelsea 15%, which we class as a strong lean.

What is the predicted score for Liverpool vs Chelsea?

Our predicted score is 2-0, with 0-0 at half-time. The most common exact score across our simulations is 2-0, at 11%.

What are the fair odds for Liverpool vs Chelsea?

On our numbers: Liverpool 1.56, draw 4.76, Chelsea 6.67. A back price shorter than that has no value on our model.

What time does Liverpool vs Chelsea kick off in India?

19:30 IST IST on Sat, 01 May 2027 (15:00 in the UK), at Anfield in Liverpool. Kick-offs can move for TV, so check again closer to the day.

How do I trade Liverpool vs Chelsea on the Goexch exchange?

On our numbers, back Liverpool at 1.56 or bigger, or lay Chelsea at 6.67 or smaller. Laying means you win if Chelsea do not win; at 6.67, a ₹100 lay risks ₹567. Prices move before and during the match, so check the live back and lay odds first.

Liverpool vs Chelsea match kaun jeetega?

Goexch goals model mein Liverpool aage hain: Liverpool 64%, draw 21%, Chelsea 15%. Sabse sambhav score 2-0 hai. Yeh sirf anumaan hai, guarantee nahi.

Is betting on the Premier League legal in India?

Online betting rules in India are set at both the central and state level, and the Promotion and Regulation of Online Gaming Act, 2025 restricts online real-money games. Check the law that applies where you live before you play. This is general information, not legal advice, and you must be 18 or older.

Will both teams score in Liverpool vs Chelsea?

We put both teams to score at 50%, so we lean yes. Over 2.5 goals is 55%.

How many goals are expected in Liverpool vs Chelsea?

2.9 expected goals in total. The most likely number of goals is 2, and a 0-0 comes up 6% of the time.

Dates and kick-off times follow the published Premier League fixture list and can move for TV or cup commitments. Win percentages, projected scores and picks on this page come from the Goexch model, built on team strength, venue history and conditions. They are estimates, not guarantees, and bets are settled on the live exchange odds you take. 18+ only. Set a budget before you bet and play responsibly.

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