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FootballPremier League 2026/27

Newcastle United vs Fulham prediction

By Goexch Football Desk, Premier League analysisUpdated

Goexch verdictStrong lean

Newcastle United are our pick (strong lean). The Goexch goals model gives them a 75% chance to win, a fair back price of 1.33, with the draw at 15%. We expect 3.3 goals and a 2-0 score, and both teams score in 50% of simulations. Kick-off: Sat, 16 Jan 2027, 20:30 IST IST at St James' Park.

Exchange view

Fair prices

  1. Newcastle UnitedPick

    75%
    Back1.33Lay1.33

  2. Draw

    15%
    Back6.67Lay6.67

  3. Fulham

    10%
    Back10.00Lay10.00
Start
20:30
IST
Date
Sat, 16 Jan 2027 · 15:00 UK
Venue
St James' Park, Newcastle

Back at the gold price or bigger, lay at it or smaller.

Quick read

Newcastle vs Fulham in brief

  • Newcastle 75%, draw 15%, Fulham 10%, which makes this a strong lean.
  • Predicted score 2-0, with goals expected (3.3 xG).
  • Both teams to score: 50% on our model.
Predicted score
2-0
Goexch pick
Newcastle
UK broadcast
Not televised yet
Projected cards
3.5-4.5

Exchange plan

How should you trade Newcastle vs Fulham on Goexch?

Our fair prices for the pick and the outsider. Laying the outsider wins if the favourite wins or it ends in a draw.

  1. Back75% chance

    Newcastle United1.33

    Take 1.33 or bigger. A ₹100 back at 1.33 returns ₹133, stake included.

  2. Lay10% chance

    Fulham10.00

    Lay only at 10.00 or smaller. At 10.00, a ₹100 lay risks ₹900 to win ₹100.

Key factors

What will decide this match?

Home advantage first, then expected goals and the factor with the most influence on this match.

  1. Home advantage

    Edge: Newcastle

    Newcastle are the stronger side and at home, which our model values at just over a fifth of a goal. Both advantages add up.

  2. Expected goals

    Edge: Goals

    3.3 expected goals is above the league average, and over 2.5 goals lands 64% of the time in our simulations.

  3. Quality gap

    Edge: Newcastle

    Newcastle rate clearly higher and the draw is only 15%. If they score first, the match should go their way.

Goals model

How many goals will there be in Newcastle vs Fulham?

Our model's chance of each goal total, with the most likely outcome in gold.

012345+

total goals

Both teams score
50%
Over 2.5 goals
64%
Expected goals
2.53 – 0.78
Half-time call
1-0

Team set-up

How will the two teams line up?

Confirmed line-ups are published about an hour before kick-off.

Home

Newcastle United

Newcastle are well drilled and have enough quality up front to punish mistakes at St James' Park. Everything they do starts with control of midfield.

Away

Fulham

Fulham are a practical mid-table side: solid without the ball on their trip to St James' Park, but lacking the creativity to run a game.

Risk radar

What could change the prediction?

The news that would move our numbers before kick-off.

  • If Newcastle name a weakened XI

    Rotation or a missing key player would cut several points from their win chance. Line-ups are out an hour before kick-off.

  • If Fulham score first

    The favourite has to chase the game, and both the draw and the upset become much more likely.

  • If a red card comes in the first hour

    Going down to ten men changes the expected-goals picture completely, whichever side it hits.

Preview

Newcastle vs Fulham match preview

Newcastle United host Fulham in front of their own fans, and the Goexch numbers lean towards Newcastle. The expected-goals gap (2.53 for Newcastle, 0.78 for Fulham) is the clearest signal, and it is where our 75% for Newcastle comes from. Fulham's best chance is to keep it level into the last 30 minutes, when the draw becomes a real possibility.

Calendar

Calendar check: Newcastle and Fulham

Recovery time and the next fixture for both clubs, from the published Premier League schedule.

Newcastle play 9 days after their game away at Man Utd on 07 Jan. After this, they go away at Arsenal 7 days after this one. League game 21 of 38.

Fulham play 10 days after their game at home to Spurs on 06 Jan. After this, they go at home to Villa 7 days after this one. League game 21 of 38.

These sides already met at Craven Cottage on Sat, 07 Nov 2026, making this the return fixture.

  1. 06 JanFulham vs SpursCraven Cottage
  2. 07 JanMan Utd vs NewcastleOld Trafford
  3. 16 JanNewcastle vs FulhamSt James' Park
  4. 23 JanArsenal vs NewcastleEmirates Stadium
  5. 23 JanFulham vs VillaCraven Cottage

Keep reading

More Newcastle and Fulham predictions

  1. 07 NovFulham vs Newcastle UnitedPremier League · 20:30 IST
  2. 23 JanArsenal vs Newcastle UnitedPremier League · 20:30 IST
  3. 30 JanNewcastle United vs Brighton & Hove AlbionPremier League · 20:30 IST
  4. 23 JanFulham vs Aston VillaPremier League · 20:30 IST
  5. 30 JanAFC Bournemouth vs FulhamPremier League · 20:30 IST
  6. 16 JanAFC Bournemouth vs Ipswich TownPremier League · 20:30 IST

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FAQ · 9

Newcastle United vs Fulham FAQs

Short, direct answers to the questions fans ask most.

Still unsure? Ask the Goexch team on WhatsApp

Who will win Newcastle vs Fulham?

Goexch predicts Newcastle United to win. Our goals model gives Newcastle 75%, the draw 15% and Fulham 10%, which we class as a strong lean.

What is the predicted score for Newcastle United vs Fulham?

Our predicted score is 2-0, with 1-0 at half-time. The most common exact score across our simulations is 2-0, at 12%.

What are the fair odds for Newcastle vs Fulham?

On our numbers: Newcastle 1.33, draw 6.67, Fulham 10.00. A back price shorter than that has no value on our model.

What time does Newcastle United vs Fulham kick off in India?

20:30 IST IST on Sat, 16 Jan 2027 (15:00 in the UK), at St James' Park in Newcastle. Kick-offs can move for TV, so check again closer to the day.

How do I trade Newcastle vs Fulham on the Goexch exchange?

On our numbers, back Newcastle United at 1.33 or bigger, or lay Fulham at 10.00 or smaller. Laying means you win if Fulham do not win; at 10.00, a ₹100 lay risks ₹900. Prices move before and during the match, so check the live back and lay odds first.

Newcastle vs Fulham match kaun jeetega?

Goexch goals model mein Newcastle United aage hain: Newcastle 75%, draw 15%, Fulham 10%. Sabse sambhav score 2-0 hai. Yeh sirf anumaan hai, guarantee nahi.

Where can I watch Newcastle vs Fulham?

Indian TV rights change between seasons, so check the official Premier League listings near the day.

Can Fulham cause an upset?

Yes, with an early goal, a disciplined defence and a quiet day for Newcastle's attack. We give Fulham a 10% chance.

Will both teams score in Newcastle vs Fulham?

We put both teams to score at 50%, so we lean yes. Over 2.5 goals is 64%.

Dates and kick-off times follow the published Premier League fixture list and can move for TV or cup commitments. Win percentages, projected scores and picks on this page come from the Goexch model, built on team strength, venue history and conditions. They are estimates, not guarantees, and bets are settled on the live exchange odds you take. 18+ only. Set a budget before you bet and play responsibly.

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Sources and official information

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