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FootballPremier League 2026/27

Newcastle United vs Nottingham Forest prediction

By Goexch Football Desk, Premier League analysisUpdated

Goexch verdictStrong lean

Newcastle United are our pick (strong lean). The Goexch goals model gives them a 68% chance to win, a fair back price of 1.47, with the draw at 19%. We expect 3.1 goals and a 2-0 score, and both teams score in 51% of simulations. Kick-off: Wed, 30 Dec 2026, 01:00 IST, next day IST at St James' Park.

Exchange view

Fair prices

  1. Newcastle UnitedPick

    68%
    Back1.47Lay1.47

  2. Draw

    19%
    Back5.26Lay5.26

  3. Nottingham Forest

    13%
    Back7.69Lay7.69
Start
01:00
IST
Date
Wed, 30 Dec 2026 · 19:30 UK
Venue
St James' Park, Newcastle

Back at the gold price or bigger, lay at it or smaller.

Quick read

Newcastle vs Forest in brief

  • Newcastle 68%, draw 19%, Forest 13%, which makes this a strong lean.
  • Predicted score 2-0, with goals expected (3.1 xG).
  • Both teams to score: 51% on our model.
Predicted score
2-0
Goexch pick
Newcastle
UK broadcast
Sky Sports
Projected cards
3.5-4.5

Exchange plan

How should you trade Newcastle vs Forest on Goexch?

Our fair prices for the pick and the outsider. Laying the outsider wins if the favourite wins or it ends in a draw.

  1. Back68% chance

    Newcastle United1.47

    Take 1.47 or bigger. A ₹100 back at 1.47 returns ₹147, stake included.

  2. Lay13% chance

    Nottingham Forest7.69

    Lay only at 7.69 or smaller. At 7.69, a ₹100 lay risks ₹669 to win ₹100.

Key factors

What will decide this match?

Home advantage first, then expected goals and the factor with the most influence on this match.

  1. Home advantage

    Edge: Newcastle

    Newcastle are the stronger side and at home, which our model values at just over a fifth of a goal. Both advantages add up.

  2. Expected goals

    Edge: Goals

    3.1 expected goals is above the league average, and over 2.5 goals lands 59% of the time in our simulations.

  3. Quality gap

    Edge: Newcastle

    Newcastle rate clearly higher and the draw is only 19%. If they score first, the match should go their way.

Goals model

How many goals will there be in Newcastle vs Forest?

Our model's chance of each goal total, with the most likely outcome in gold.

012345+

total goals

Both teams score
51%
Over 2.5 goals
59%
Expected goals
2.22 – 0.86
Half-time call
1-0

Team set-up

How will the two teams line up?

Confirmed line-ups are published about an hour before kick-off.

Home

Newcastle United

Newcastle are well drilled and have enough quality up front to punish mistakes at St James' Park. Everything they do starts with control of midfield.

Away

Nottingham Forest

Expect Forest to sit compact on their trip to St James' Park and wait for one chance rather than try to control the match.

Risk radar

What could change the prediction?

The news that would move our numbers before kick-off.

  • If Newcastle name a weakened XI

    Rotation or a missing key player would cut several points from their win chance. Line-ups are out an hour before kick-off.

  • If Forest score first

    The favourite has to chase the game, and both the draw and the upset become much more likely.

  • If a red card comes in the first hour

    Going down to ten men changes the expected-goals picture completely, whichever side it hits.

Preview

Newcastle vs Forest match preview

Newcastle United host Nottingham Forest in front of their own fans, and the Goexch numbers lean towards Newcastle. The expected-goals gap (2.22 for Newcastle, 0.86 for Forest) is the clearest signal, and it is where our 68% for Newcastle comes from. Forest's best chance is to keep it level into the last 30 minutes, when the draw becomes a real possibility.

Calendar

Calendar check: Newcastle and Forest

Recovery time and the next fixture for both clubs, from the published Premier League schedule.

Newcastle play 4 days after their game at home to Man City on 26 Dec. After this, they go away at Chelsea 4 days after this one. League game 18 of 38.

Forest play 3 days after their game away at Man Utd on 27 Dec, so tired legs could show late on. After this, they go at home to Fulham 3 days after this one, so some rotation is possible. League game 18 of 38.

They meet again at City Ground on Wed, 03 Mar 2027, so this is the first of two league meetings. UK broadcaster: Sky Sports.

  1. 26 DecNewcastle vs Man CitySt James' Park
  2. 27 DecMan Utd vs ForestOld Trafford
  3. 30 DecNewcastle vs ForestSt James' Park
  4. 02 JanForest vs FulhamCity Ground
  5. 03 JanChelsea vs NewcastleStamford Bridge

Keep reading

More Newcastle and Forest predictions

  1. 03 MarNottingham Forest vs Newcastle UnitedPremier League · 01:30 IST, next day
  2. 03 JanChelsea vs Newcastle UnitedPremier League · 19:30 IST
  3. 07 JanManchester United vs Newcastle UnitedPremier League · 01:30 IST, next day
  4. 02 JanNottingham Forest vs FulhamPremier League · 20:30 IST
  5. 05 JanNottingham Forest vs Hull CityPremier League · 01:00 IST, next day
  6. 30 DecCoventry City vs BrentfordPremier League · 01:00 IST, next day

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FAQ · 9

Newcastle United vs Nottingham Forest FAQs

Short, direct answers to the questions fans ask most.

Still unsure? Ask the Goexch team on WhatsApp

Who will win Newcastle vs Forest?

Goexch predicts Newcastle United to win. Our goals model gives Newcastle 68%, the draw 19% and Forest 13%, which we class as a strong lean.

What is the predicted score for Newcastle United vs Nottingham Forest?

Our predicted score is 2-0, with 1-0 at half-time. The most common exact score across our simulations is 2-0, at 11%.

What are the fair odds for Newcastle vs Forest?

On our numbers: Newcastle 1.47, draw 5.26, Forest 7.69. A back price shorter than that has no value on our model.

What time does Newcastle United vs Nottingham Forest kick off in India?

01:00 IST, next day IST on Wed, 30 Dec 2026 (19:30 in the UK), at St James' Park in Newcastle. Kick-offs can move for TV, so check again closer to the day.

How do I trade Newcastle vs Forest on the Goexch exchange?

On our numbers, back Newcastle United at 1.47 or bigger, or lay Nottingham Forest at 7.69 or smaller. Laying means you win if Nottingham Forest do not win; at 7.69, a ₹100 lay risks ₹669. Prices move before and during the match, so check the live back and lay odds first.

Newcastle vs Forest match kaun jeetega?

Goexch goals model mein Newcastle United aage hain: Newcastle 68%, draw 19%, Forest 13%. Sabse sambhav score 2-0 hai. Yeh sirf anumaan hai, guarantee nahi.

Can Forest cause an upset?

Yes, with an early goal, a disciplined defence and a quiet day for Newcastle's attack. We give Forest a 13% chance.

How many goals are expected in Newcastle vs Forest?

3.1 expected goals in total. The most likely number of goals is 2, and a 0-0 comes up 5% of the time.

Where can I watch Newcastle vs Forest?

In the UK it is on Sky Sports. Indian TV rights change between seasons, so check the official Premier League listings near the day.

Dates and kick-off times follow the published Premier League fixture list and can move for TV or cup commitments. Win percentages, projected scores and picks on this page come from the Goexch model, built on team strength, venue history and conditions. They are estimates, not guarantees, and bets are settled on the live exchange odds you take. 18+ only. Set a budget before you bet and play responsibly.

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Sources and official information

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