CricketAustralia tour of South Africa, 2026 · match 5 of 6
South Africa vs Australia 2nd Test prediction
Goexch verdictSlight lean
On our numbers, South Africa win 55% of the time against Australia, which makes this a slight lean. We expect 263 from South Africa and 263 from Australia at St George's Park, where the bowlers should have the edge. The match starts Sat, 24 Oct 2026 (start time not yet confirmed).
Quick read
SA vs AUS 2nd Test in brief
- South Africa at 55%, a slight lean. Back only at 1.82 or bigger.
- Pitch suits bowlers, and South Africa are projected to post the bigger total.
- South Africa are playing in home conditions.
- Goexch pick
- South Africa
- Format
- Test match
- Pitch
- two-paced, bowler-friendly
- Favours
- Bowlers
Exchange plan
How should you trade SA vs AUS on Goexch?
Our fair prices for both sides. Back the pick at the price or bigger; lay the outsider at the price or smaller.
Back55% chance
South Africa1.82
Take 1.82 or bigger. A ₹100 back at 1.82 returns ₹182, stake included.
Lay45% chance
Australia2.22
Lay only at 2.22 or smaller. At 2.22, a ₹100 lay risks ₹122 to win ₹100.
Key factors
What will decide this match?
The pitch comes first, followed by the two factors with the most influence on this match.
Pitch read
Edge: Even
The ball should stop on the batters. A modest total can win the match here, and cutters will be the bowlers' main weapon. Both sides will rely on the bowlers, so the deeper attack matters.
Even batting
Edge: Even
Only 0 runs separate the projected totals, so the batting is close to level. One big individual innings is the likeliest tiebreaker.
Toss call
Edge: Toss winner
Chase. The surface only gets slower, so the side batting second gets the better of it.
Projection
How many runs will South Africa and Australia score?
Projected session-by-session runs on day one, on a two-paced, bowler-friendly surface at St George's Park.
- Session 1
- SA80-94AUS81-97
- Session 2
- SA86-104AUS86-102
- Session 3
- SA74-88AUS72-88
Match-winners
Who can swing South Africa vs Australia?
Impact scores estimate how likely each player is to decide the result. XIs are confirmed at the toss.
South Africa
Kagiso Rabada85
Hits the deck hard
Keshav Maharaj83
Can bowl all day
Australia
Josh Hazlewood97
Hits the deck hard
Steve Smith84
Turns fifties into hundreds
Risk radar
What could change the prediction?
The news that would move our numbers before the first ball.
If Kagiso Rabada is left out
We would cut South Africa by about five points, making this a coin flip.
If Australia win the toss
On a pitch where the toss matters, that alone moves a couple of points to Australia.
If rain washes out a day or more
The draw becomes the most likely result, and our win call loses most of its value.
Preview
South Africa vs Australia match preview
Match 5 of 6 is where Australia tour of South Africa, 2026 starts to take shape. South Africa come in at 55% because their batting and bowling both suit these two-paced, bowler-friendly conditions slightly better. South Africa are at home, and the model adds a few percentage points for that. Australia need early wickets or one big innings to win. Without that, the favourites should control the match.
On the toss: Chase. The surface only gets slower, so the side batting second gets the better of it.
Series window, not a confirmed XI date. Confirm the date on match day.
Calendar
Calendar check: 2nd Test
Recovery time, travel and the next fixture in Australia tour of South Africa, 2026.
St George's Park in Gqeberha hosts the 2nd Test on Sat, 24 Oct 2026: fixture 5 of 6 in the series.
The previous fixture, the 1st Test, was played 8 days before this one at Kingsmead in Durban, which means a travel day to Gqeberha in between. A long break resets both camps, so the last game's momentum carries less weight than usual.
Up next: the 3rd Test, 7 days after this match at Newlands in Cape Town.
Also at St George's Park on the Goexch schedule: 2nd ODI: South Africa vs Bangladesh (27 Nov) (1 fixture in all).
Keep reading
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FAQ · 9
SA vs AUS 2nd Test FAQs
Short, direct answers to the questions fans ask most.
Still unsure? Ask the Goexch team on WhatsApp
Who will win South Africa vs Australia?
Goexch predicts South Africa to win, with a 55% chance against 45% for Australia, which we class as a slight lean. The call combines team ratings, home advantage and how a two-paced, bowler-friendly pitch at St George's Park is likely to play.
What are the fair odds for South Africa in the SA vs AUS 2nd Test?
Our 55% rating works out to fair decimal odds of 1.82 for South Africa and 2.22 for Australia. If the back price on the exchange is shorter than that, the bet has no value on our numbers.
What time does the SA vs AUS 2nd Test start in India?
The series window puts it on Sat, 24 Oct 2026 (start time not yet confirmed) at St George's Park, Gqeberha, but the board has not confirmed the date or start time yet. We update this page as soon as it does.
What is the pitch report for St George's Park?
We expect a two-paced, bowler-friendly pitch that should help the bowlers. The ball should stop on the batters. A modest total can win the match here, and cutters will be the bowlers' main weapon.
Should the captain bat or bowl first in SA vs AUS?
Chase. The surface only gets slower, so the side batting second gets the better of it. The toss happens about 30 minutes before the start, when both XIs are confirmed.
Can Australia win this match?
Yes, but they need early wickets or a match-winning innings. We give Australia a 45% chance, and that rises if they win a toss that matters or if South Africa change their best XI.
How do I trade South Africa vs Australia on the Goexch exchange?
On our numbers, back South Africa at 1.82 or bigger, or lay Australia at 2.22 or smaller. Laying means you win if Australia do not win; at 2.22, a ₹100 lay risks ₹122. Prices move before and during the match, so check the live back and lay odds first.
South Africa vs Australia match kaun jeetega?
Goexch model ke hisaab se South Africa ka chance zyada hai: 55%, jabki Australia ka 45%. Match Sat, 24 Oct 2026 (start time not yet confirmed) shuru hoga. Yeh sirf anumaan hai, guarantee nahi.
Gqeberha ki pitch report kya hai?
Hamare hisaab se pitch two-paced, bowler-friendly rahegi, yaani bowlers ka daur rahega aur score kam banega. Toss match shuru hone se lagbhag aadha ghanta pehle hoga.
Win percentages, projected scores and picks on this page come from the Goexch model, built on team strength, venue history and conditions. They are estimates, not guarantees, and bets are settled on the live exchange odds you take. 18+ only. Set a budget before you bet and play responsibly.
Check it at the source
Sources and official information
- ICCICC tournament fixtures, results, rankings and team news.International Cricket Council
- ICC playing conditionsOfficial match rules for Tests, ODIs and T20Is, including rain-affected matches.International Cricket Council
- ESPNcricinfoScorecards, venue records and player statistics.ESPN
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