CricketNew Zealand tour of Australia, 2026-27 · match 1 of 4
Australia vs New Zealand 1st Test prediction
Goexch verdictClear lean
On our numbers, Australia win 59% of the time against New Zealand, which makes this a clear lean. We expect 290 from Australia and 268 from New Zealand at Perth Stadium, where the batters should have the edge. The match starts Wed, 09 Dec 2026 (start time not yet confirmed).
Quick read
AUS vs NZ 1st Test in brief
- Australia at 59%, a clear lean. Back only at 1.69 or bigger.
- Pitch suits batters, and Australia are projected to post the bigger total.
- Australia are playing in home conditions.
- Goexch pick
- Australia
- Format
- Test match
- Pitch
- flat, batter-friendly
- Favours
- Batters
Exchange plan
How should you trade AUS vs NZ on Goexch?
Our fair prices for both sides. Back the pick at the price or bigger; lay the outsider at the price or smaller.
Back59% chance
Australia1.69
Take 1.69 or bigger. A ₹100 back at 1.69 returns ₹169, stake included.
Lay41% chance
New Zealand2.44
Lay only at 2.44 or smaller. At 2.44, a ₹100 lay risks ₹144 to win ₹100.
Key factors
What will decide this match?
The pitch comes first, followed by the two factors with the most influence on this match.
Pitch read
Edge: Even
Hard, true and quick, with short boundaries and a fast outfield. A below-par total will not be defended on this pitch. Both sides will rely on the batters, so the deeper attack matters.
Batting edge
Edge: Australia
Australia project about 22 runs higher in the day-one total. Across a Test, a gap that size turns close games into comfortable wins.
Series opener
Edge: New Zealand
Neither side has form on this tour yet, which makes the first match of a series the hardest to predict. A quick start from New Zealand would move the odds sharply.
Projection
How many runs will Australia and New Zealand score?
Projected session-by-session runs on day one, on a flat, batter-friendly surface at Perth Stadium.
- Session 1
- AUS84-100NZ81-97
- Session 2
- AUS96-114NZ91-107
- Session 3
- AUS85-101NZ73-87
Match-winners
Who can swing Australia vs New Zealand?
Impact scores estimate how likely each player is to decide the result. XIs are confirmed at the toss.
Australia
Travis Head89
Built for long innings
Mitchell Starc93
Hits the deck hard
New Zealand
Tim Southee88
Hits the deck hard
Glenn Phillips97
Turns fifties into hundreds
Risk radar
What could change the prediction?
The news that would move our numbers before the first ball.
If Travis Head is left out
We would cut Australia by about five points, making this a slight lean.
If the pitch looks drier or greener than expected at the toss
Extra help for the bowlers would close the gap between the two batting line-ups.
If rain washes out a day or more
The draw becomes the most likely result, and our win call loses most of its value.
Preview
Australia vs New Zealand match preview
New Zealand tour of Australia, 2026-27 starts here, so this is the first real look at each side's form on the tour. Australia come in at 59% because their batting and bowling both suit these flat, batter-friendly conditions slightly better. Australia are at home, and the model adds a few percentage points for that. New Zealand are still in this at 41%, but they need their best players to fire on the same day.
On the toss: Whatever the captain chooses, both teams should get the runs on offer.
Series window, not a confirmed XI date. Confirm the date on match day.
Calendar
Calendar check: 1st Test
Recovery time, travel and the next fixture in New Zealand tour of Australia, 2026-27.
Perth Stadium in Perth hosts the 1st Test on Wed, 09 Dec 2026: fixture 1 of 4 in the series.
As the series opener, there is no head-to-head evidence from this tour yet, so the market leans on reputation.
Up next: the 2nd Test, 10 days after this match at Adelaide Oval in Adelaide.
Also at Perth Stadium on the Goexch schedule: 1st ODI: Australia vs England (12 Nov) (1 fixture in all).
Keep reading
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FAQ · 9
AUS vs NZ 1st Test FAQs
Short, direct answers to the questions fans ask most.
Still unsure? Ask the Goexch team on WhatsApp
Who will win Australia vs New Zealand?
Goexch predicts Australia to win, with a 59% chance against 41% for New Zealand, which we class as a clear lean. The call combines team ratings, home advantage and how a flat, batter-friendly pitch at Perth Stadium is likely to play.
What are the fair odds for Australia in the AUS vs NZ 1st Test?
Our 59% rating works out to fair decimal odds of 1.69 for Australia and 2.44 for New Zealand. If the back price on the exchange is shorter than that, the bet has no value on our numbers.
What time does the AUS vs NZ 1st Test start in India?
The series window puts it on Wed, 09 Dec 2026 (start time not yet confirmed) at Perth Stadium, Perth, but the board has not confirmed the date or start time yet. We update this page as soon as it does.
What is the pitch report for Perth Stadium?
We expect a flat, batter-friendly pitch that should help the batters. Hard, true and quick, with short boundaries and a fast outfield. A below-par total will not be defended on this pitch.
Should the captain bat or bowl first in AUS vs NZ?
Whatever the captain chooses, both teams should get the runs on offer. The toss happens about 30 minutes before the start, when both XIs are confirmed.
Can New Zealand win this match?
Yes, but they need early wickets or a match-winning innings. We give New Zealand a 41% chance, and that rises if they win a toss that matters or if Australia change their best XI.
How do I trade Australia vs New Zealand on the Goexch exchange?
On our numbers, back Australia at 1.69 or bigger, or lay New Zealand at 2.44 or smaller. Laying means you win if New Zealand do not win; at 2.44, a ₹100 lay risks ₹144. Prices move before and during the match, so check the live back and lay odds first.
Australia vs New Zealand match kaun jeetega?
Goexch model ke hisaab se Australia ka chance zyada hai: 59%, jabki New Zealand ka 41%. Match Wed, 09 Dec 2026 (start time not yet confirmed) shuru hoga. Yeh sirf anumaan hai, guarantee nahi.
Perth ki pitch report kya hai?
Hamare hisaab se pitch flat, batter-friendly rahegi, yaani batting ke liye achhi pitch hai, bada score ban sakta hai. Toss match shuru hone se lagbhag aadha ghanta pehle hoga.
Win percentages, projected scores and picks on this page come from the Goexch model, built on team strength, venue history and conditions. They are estimates, not guarantees, and bets are settled on the live exchange odds you take. 18+ only. Set a budget before you bet and play responsibly.
Check it at the source
Sources and official information
- ICCICC tournament fixtures, results, rankings and team news.International Cricket Council
- ICC playing conditionsOfficial match rules for Tests, ODIs and T20Is, including rain-affected matches.International Cricket Council
- ESPNcricinfoScorecards, venue records and player statistics.ESPN
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