CricketNew Zealand tour of Australia, 2026-27 · match 3 of 4
Australia vs New Zealand 3rd Test prediction
Goexch verdict
On our numbers, Australia win 70% of the time against New Zealand, which makes this a strong lean. We expect 293 from Australia and 271 from New Zealand at Melbourne Cricket Ground, where the batters should have the edge. The match starts Tue, 29 Dec 2026 (start time not yet confirmed).
Quick read
AUS vs NZ 3rd Test in brief
- Australia at 70%, a strong lean. Back only at 1.43 or bigger.
- Pitch suits batters, and Australia are projected to post the bigger total.
- Australia are playing in home conditions.
- Goexch pick
- Australia
- Format
- Test match
- Pitch
- flat, batter-friendly
- Favours
- Batters
Exchange plan
How should you trade AUS vs NZ on Goexch?
Our fair prices for both sides. Back the pick at the price or bigger; lay the outsider at the price or smaller.
Back70% chance
Australia1.43
Take 1.43 or bigger. A ₹100 back at 1.43 returns ₹143, stake included.
Lay30% chance
New Zealand3.33
Lay only at 3.33 or smaller. At 3.33, a ₹100 lay risks ₹233 to win ₹100.
Key factors
What will decide this match?
The pitch comes first, followed by the two factors with the most influence on this match.
Pitch read
Edge: Even
Hard, true and quick, with short boundaries and a fast outfield. A below-par total will not be defended on this pitch. Both sides will rely on the batters, so the deeper attack matters.
Toss call
Edge: Even
Whatever the captain chooses, both teams should get the runs on offer.
Series pressure
Edge: Australia
A win puts Australia in control with 1 match left. A loss hands New Zealand the momentum.
Projection
How many runs will Australia and New Zealand score?
Projected session-by-session runs on day one, on a flat, batter-friendly surface at Melbourne Cricket Ground.
- Session 1
- AUS91-105NZ84-100
- Session 2
- AUS95-111NZ87-103
- Session 3
- AUS85-99NZ76-92
Match-winners
Who can swing Australia vs New Zealand?
Impact scores estimate how likely each player is to decide the result. XIs are confirmed at the toss.
Australia
Steve Smith79
Built for long innings
Cameron Green82
Gives the side a fifth bowler
New Zealand
Lockie Ferguson84
Hits the deck hard
Glenn Phillips91
Turns fifties into hundreds
Risk radar
What could change the prediction?
The news that would move our numbers before the first ball.
If Steve Smith is left out
We would cut Australia by about five points, making this a strong lean.
If the pitch looks drier or greener than expected at the toss
Extra help for the bowlers would close the gap between the two batting line-ups.
If rain washes out a day or more
The draw becomes the most likely result, and our win call loses most of its value.
Preview
Australia vs New Zealand match preview
With 1 match of New Zealand tour of Australia, 2026-27 still to come, game 3 can swing the series. Australia come in at 70% because their batting and bowling both suit these flat, batter-friendly conditions slightly better. Australia are at home, and the model adds a few percentage points for that. New Zealand's best chance of an upset is the first hour. If they get on top early, our 30% for them starts to look low.
On the toss: Whatever the captain chooses, both teams should get the runs on offer.
Series window, not a confirmed XI date. Confirm the date on match day.
Calendar
Calendar check: 3rd Test
Recovery time, travel and the next fixture in New Zealand tour of Australia, 2026-27.
Melbourne Cricket Ground in Melbourne hosts the 3rd Test on Tue, 29 Dec 2026: fixture 3 of 4 in the series.
The previous fixture, the 2nd Test, was played 10 days before this one at Adelaide Oval in Adelaide, which means a travel day to Melbourne in between. A long break resets both camps, so the last game's momentum carries less weight than usual.
Up next: the 4th Test, 10 days after this match at Sydney Cricket Ground in Sydney.
Also at Melbourne Cricket Ground on the Goexch schedule: 1st T20I: Australia vs England (21 Nov), One-off Test: Australia vs England (11 Mar) (2 fixtures in all).
Keep reading
More cricket predictions
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- 11 MarOne-off Test: Australia vs EnglandAustralia vs England 150th Anniversary One-off Test, 2027
FAQ · 9
AUS vs NZ 3rd Test FAQs
Short, direct answers to the questions fans ask most.
Still unsure? Ask the Goexch team on WhatsApp
Who will win Australia vs New Zealand?
Goexch predicts Australia to win, with a 70% chance against 30% for New Zealand, which we class as a strong lean. The call combines team ratings, home advantage and how a flat, batter-friendly pitch at Melbourne Cricket Ground is likely to play.
What are the fair odds for Australia in the AUS vs NZ 3rd Test?
Our 70% rating works out to fair decimal odds of 1.43 for Australia and 3.33 for New Zealand. If the back price on the exchange is shorter than that, the bet has no value on our numbers.
What time does the AUS vs NZ 3rd Test start in India?
The series window puts it on Tue, 29 Dec 2026 (start time not yet confirmed) at Melbourne Cricket Ground, Melbourne, but the board has not confirmed the date or start time yet. We update this page as soon as it does.
What is the pitch report for Melbourne Cricket Ground?
We expect a flat, batter-friendly pitch that should help the batters. Hard, true and quick, with short boundaries and a fast outfield. A below-par total will not be defended on this pitch.
Should the captain bat or bowl first in AUS vs NZ?
Whatever the captain chooses, both teams should get the runs on offer. The toss happens about 30 minutes before the start, when both XIs are confirmed.
Can New Zealand win this match?
Yes, but they need early wickets or a match-winning innings. We give New Zealand a 30% chance, and that rises if they win a toss that matters or if Australia change their best XI.
How do I trade Australia vs New Zealand on the Goexch exchange?
On our numbers, back Australia at 1.43 or bigger, or lay New Zealand at 3.33 or smaller. Laying means you win if New Zealand do not win; at 3.33, a ₹100 lay risks ₹233. Prices move before and during the match, so check the live back and lay odds first.
Australia vs New Zealand match kaun jeetega?
Goexch model ke hisaab se Australia ka chance zyada hai: 70%, jabki New Zealand ka 30%. Match Tue, 29 Dec 2026 (start time not yet confirmed) shuru hoga. Yeh sirf anumaan hai, guarantee nahi.
Melbourne ki pitch report kya hai?
Hamare hisaab se pitch flat, batter-friendly rahegi, yaani batting ke liye achhi pitch hai, bada score ban sakta hai. Toss match shuru hone se lagbhag aadha ghanta pehle hoga.
Win percentages, projected scores and picks on this page come from the Goexch model, built on team strength, venue history and conditions. They are estimates, not guarantees, and bets are settled on the live exchange odds you take. 18+ only. Set a budget before you bet and play responsibly.
Check it at the source
Sources and official information
- ICCICC tournament fixtures, results, rankings and team news.International Cricket Council
- ICC playing conditionsOfficial match rules for Tests, ODIs and T20Is, including rain-affected matches.International Cricket Council
- ESPNcricinfoScorecards, venue records and player statistics.ESPN
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