Goexch
Get your ID

CricketNew Zealand tour of Australia, 2026-27 · match 4 of 4

Australia vs New Zealand 4th Test prediction

By Goexch Cricket Desk, match analysisUpdated

Goexch verdictStrong lean

Goexch backs Australia to win the AUS vs NZ 4th Test, with a 73% win chance (strong lean) against 27% for New Zealand. Projected totals: Australia 292, New Zealand 267. Conditions at Sydney Cricket Ground should help the batters. First ball: Fri, 08 Jan 2027 (start time not yet confirmed).

Exchange view

Fair prices

  1. AustraliaPick

    73%
    Back1.37Lay1.37

  2. New Zealand

    27%
    Back3.70Lay3.70
Start
TBC
time
Date
Fri, 08 Jan 2027
Venue
Sydney Cricket Ground, Sydney

Back at the gold price or bigger, lay at it or smaller.

Quick read

AUS vs NZ 4th Test in brief

  • Australia at 73%, a strong lean. Back only at 1.37 or bigger.
  • Pitch suits batters, and Australia are projected to post the bigger total.
  • Australia are playing in home conditions.
Goexch pick
Australia
Format
Test match
Pitch
flat, batter-friendly
Favours
Batters

Exchange plan

How should you trade AUS vs NZ on Goexch?

Our fair prices for both sides. Back the pick at the price or bigger; lay the outsider at the price or smaller.

  1. Back73% chance

    Australia1.37

    Take 1.37 or bigger. A ₹100 back at 1.37 returns ₹137, stake included.

  2. Lay27% chance

    New Zealand3.70

    Lay only at 3.70 or smaller. At 3.70, a ₹100 lay risks ₹270 to win ₹100.

Key factors

What will decide this match?

The pitch comes first, followed by the two factors with the most influence on this match.

  1. Pitch read

    Edge: Even

    Hard, true and quick, with short boundaries and a fast outfield. A below-par total will not be defended on this pitch. Both sides will rely on the batters, so the deeper attack matters.

  2. Batting edge

    Edge: Australia

    Our projection gives Australia a 25-run cushion, and that is the biggest single reason the model leans their way.

  3. Series pressure

    Edge: Australia

    It is the last match, so Australia cannot ease off and New Zealand have nothing to save.

Projection

How many runs will Australia and New Zealand score?

Projected session-by-session runs on day one, on a flat, batter-friendly surface at Sydney Cricket Ground.

Session 1
Session 2
Session 3
Australia New ZealandDay one: AUS 268-316 · NZ 244-290

Match-winners

Who can swing Australia vs New Zealand?

Impact scores estimate how likely each player is to decide the result. XIs are confirmed at the toss.

Australia

  • David Warner90

    Built for long innings

  • Josh Hazlewood88

    Hits the deck hard

New Zealand

  • Glenn Phillips83

    Built for long innings

  • Lockie Ferguson83

    Hits the deck hard

Risk radar

What could change the prediction?

The news that would move our numbers before the first ball.

  • If David Warner is left out

    We would cut Australia by about five points, making this a strong lean.

  • If the pitch looks drier or greener than expected at the toss

    Extra help for the bowlers would close the gap between the two batting line-ups.

  • If rain washes out a day or more

    The draw becomes the most likely result, and our win call loses most of its value.

Preview

Australia vs New Zealand match preview

This is the final match of New Zealand tour of Australia, 2026-27, so neither side will hold anything back. Australia come in at 73% because their batting and bowling both suit these flat, batter-friendly conditions slightly better. Australia are at home, and the model adds a few percentage points for that. New Zealand need early wickets or one big innings to win. Without that, the favourites should control the match.

On the toss: Whatever the captain chooses, both teams should get the runs on offer.

Series window, not a confirmed XI date. Confirm the date on match day.

Calendar

Calendar check: 4th Test

Recovery time, travel and the next fixture in New Zealand tour of Australia, 2026-27.

Sydney Cricket Ground in Sydney hosts the 4th Test on Fri, 08 Jan 2027: fixture 4 of 4 in the series.

The previous fixture, the 3rd Test, was played 10 days before this one at Melbourne Cricket Ground in Melbourne, which means a travel day to Sydney in between. A long break resets both camps, so the last game's momentum carries less weight than usual.

No fixtures follow in this series, so expect both sides to pick their best available XI.

Also at Sydney Cricket Ground on the Goexch schedule: 4th T20I: Australia vs England (29 Nov) (1 fixture in all).

  1. 29 Dec3rd Test: Australia vs New ZealandMelbourne Cricket Ground
  2. 08 Jan4th Test: Australia vs New ZealandSydney Cricket Ground

Keep reading

More cricket predictions

  1. 09 Dec1st Test: Australia vs New ZealandNew Zealand tour of Australia, 2026-27
  2. 19 Dec2nd Test: Australia vs New ZealandNew Zealand tour of Australia, 2026-27
  3. 29 Dec3rd Test: Australia vs New ZealandNew Zealand tour of Australia, 2026-27
  4. 11 MarOne-off Test: Australia vs EnglandAustralia vs England 150th Anniversary One-off Test, 2027

Back or lay it live

Trade this match with your Goexch ID

One ID for cricket, football and tennis, with 24/7 WhatsApp support in English and Hindi. 18+ only. Set a budget first and bet responsibly.

Get your ID on WhatsApp

FAQ · 9

AUS vs NZ 4th Test FAQs

Short, direct answers to the questions fans ask most.

Still unsure? Ask the Goexch team on WhatsApp

Who will win Australia vs New Zealand?

Goexch predicts Australia to win, with a 73% chance against 27% for New Zealand, which we class as a strong lean. The call combines team ratings, home advantage and how a flat, batter-friendly pitch at Sydney Cricket Ground is likely to play.

What are the fair odds for Australia in the AUS vs NZ 4th Test?

Our 73% rating works out to fair decimal odds of 1.37 for Australia and 3.70 for New Zealand. If the back price on the exchange is shorter than that, the bet has no value on our numbers.

What time does the AUS vs NZ 4th Test start in India?

The series window puts it on Fri, 08 Jan 2027 (start time not yet confirmed) at Sydney Cricket Ground, Sydney, but the board has not confirmed the date or start time yet. We update this page as soon as it does.

What is the pitch report for Sydney Cricket Ground?

We expect a flat, batter-friendly pitch that should help the batters. Hard, true and quick, with short boundaries and a fast outfield. A below-par total will not be defended on this pitch.

Should the captain bat or bowl first in AUS vs NZ?

Whatever the captain chooses, both teams should get the runs on offer. The toss happens about 30 minutes before the start, when both XIs are confirmed.

Can New Zealand win this match?

Yes, but they need early wickets or a match-winning innings. We give New Zealand a 27% chance, and that rises if they win a toss that matters or if Australia change their best XI.

How do I trade Australia vs New Zealand on the Goexch exchange?

On our numbers, back Australia at 1.37 or bigger, or lay New Zealand at 3.70 or smaller. Laying means you win if New Zealand do not win; at 3.70, a ₹100 lay risks ₹270. Prices move before and during the match, so check the live back and lay odds first.

Australia vs New Zealand match kaun jeetega?

Goexch model ke hisaab se Australia ka chance zyada hai: 73%, jabki New Zealand ka 27%. Match Fri, 08 Jan 2027 (start time not yet confirmed) shuru hoga. Yeh sirf anumaan hai, guarantee nahi.

Sydney ki pitch report kya hai?

Hamare hisaab se pitch flat, batter-friendly rahegi, yaani batting ke liye achhi pitch hai, bada score ban sakta hai. Toss match shuru hone se lagbhag aadha ghanta pehle hoga.

Win percentages, projected scores and picks on this page come from the Goexch model, built on team strength, venue history and conditions. They are estimates, not guarantees, and bets are settled on the live exchange odds you take. 18+ only. Set a budget before you bet and play responsibly.

Check it at the source

Sources and official information

External sites open in a new tab. We aren't affiliated with them.