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FootballPremier League 2026/27

Arsenal vs Liverpool prediction

By Goexch Football Desk, Premier League analysisUpdated

Goexch verdictSlight lean

On our numbers, Arsenal beat Liverpool 52% of the time, with the draw at 24%. We project 1.70 expected goals to 1.08 and a 1-0 score, with over 2.5 goals at 53%. Kick-off: Sat, 06 Feb 2027, 20:30 IST IST at Emirates Stadium.

Exchange view

Fair prices

  1. ArsenalPick

    52%
    Back1.92Lay1.92

  2. Draw

    24%
    Back4.17Lay4.17

  3. Liverpool

    24%
    Back4.17Lay4.17
Start
20:30
IST
Date
Sat, 06 Feb 2027 · 15:00 UK
Venue
Emirates Stadium, London

Back at the gold price or bigger, lay at it or smaller.

Quick read

Arsenal vs Liverpool in brief

  • Arsenal 52%, draw 24%, Liverpool 24%, which makes this a slight lean.
  • Predicted score 1-0, with the goals line finely balanced (2.8 xG).
  • Both teams to score: 54% on our model.
Predicted score
1-0
Goexch pick
Arsenal
UK broadcast
Not televised yet
Projected cards
3.5-4.5

Exchange plan

How should you trade Arsenal vs Liverpool on Goexch?

Our fair prices for the pick and the outsider. Laying the outsider wins if the favourite wins or it ends in a draw.

  1. Back52% chance

    Arsenal1.92

    Take 1.92 or bigger. A ₹100 back at 1.92 returns ₹192, stake included.

  2. Lay24% chance

    Liverpool4.17

    Lay only at 4.17 or smaller. At 4.17, a ₹100 lay risks ₹317 to win ₹100.

Key factors

What will decide this match?

Home advantage first, then expected goals and the factor with the most influence on this match.

  1. Home advantage

    Edge: Arsenal

    Arsenal are the stronger side and at home, which our model values at just over a fifth of a goal. Both advantages add up.

  2. Expected goals

    Edge: Even

    At 2.8 expected goals, the 2.5 line is close to 50/50 (53% for the over).

  3. Quality gap

    Edge: Arsenal

    Arsenal rate clearly higher and the draw is only 24%. If they score first, the match should go their way.

Goals model

How many goals will there be in Arsenal vs Liverpool?

Our model's chance of each goal total, with the most likely outcome in gold.

012345+

total goals

Both teams score
54%
Over 2.5 goals
53%
Expected goals
1.70 – 1.08
Half-time call
0-0

Team set-up

How will the two teams line up?

Confirmed line-ups are published about an hour before kick-off.

Home

Arsenal

Arsenal are built to dominate the ball. They should have most of the possession at Emirates Stadium and keep Liverpool pinned in their own half for long spells.

Away

Liverpool

Liverpool are built to dominate the ball. They should have most of the possession on their trip to Emirates Stadium and keep Arsenal pinned in their own half for long spells.

Risk radar

What could change the prediction?

The news that would move our numbers before kick-off.

  • If Arsenal name a weakened XI

    Rotation or a missing key player would cut several points from their win chance. Line-ups are out an hour before kick-off.

  • If Liverpool score first

    The favourite has to chase the game, and both the draw and the upset become much more likely.

  • If a red card comes in the first hour

    Going down to ten men changes the expected-goals picture completely, whichever side it hits.

Preview

Arsenal vs Liverpool match preview

Liverpool visit Emirates Stadium in a 2026/27 Premier League match that the Goexch model rates as a slight lean. We project 1.70 expected goals for Arsenal and 1.08 for Liverpool. Across thousands of simulated matches, Arsenal win 52% of them. An early goal would change everything for Liverpool. Teams chasing a game leave gaps, and that is where upsets come from.

Calendar

Calendar check: Arsenal and Liverpool

Recovery time and the next fixture for both clubs, from the published Premier League schedule.

Arsenal play 7 days after their game away at Man City on 30 Jan. After this, they go away at Ipswich 4 days after this one. League game 24 of 38.

Liverpool play 7 days after their game at home to Everton on 30 Jan. After this, they go away at Coventry 4 days after this one. League game 24 of 38.

These sides already met at Anfield on Sun, 01 Nov 2026, making this the return fixture.

  1. 30 JanMan City vs ArsenalEtihad Stadium
  2. 30 JanLiverpool vs EvertonAnfield
  3. 06 FebArsenal vs LiverpoolEmirates Stadium
  4. 10 FebIpswich vs ArsenalPortman Road
  5. 10 FebCoventry vs LiverpoolCoventry Building Society Arena

Keep reading

More Arsenal and Liverpool predictions

  1. 01 NovLiverpool vs ArsenalPremier League · 22:00 IST
  2. 10 FebIpswich Town vs ArsenalPremier League · 01:30 IST, next day
  3. 20 FebArsenal vs FulhamPremier League · 20:30 IST
  4. 10 FebCoventry City vs LiverpoolPremier League · 01:30 IST, next day
  5. 20 FebLiverpool vs Hull CityPremier League · 20:30 IST
  6. 06 FebBrighton & Hove Albion vs Hull CityPremier League · 20:30 IST

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FAQ · 9

Arsenal vs Liverpool FAQs

Short, direct answers to the questions fans ask most.

Still unsure? Ask the Goexch team on WhatsApp

Who will win Arsenal vs Liverpool?

Goexch predicts Arsenal to win. Our goals model gives Arsenal 52%, the draw 24% and Liverpool 24%, which we class as a slight lean.

What is the predicted score for Arsenal vs Liverpool?

Our predicted score is 1-0, with 0-0 at half-time. The most common exact score across our simulations is 1-1, at 11%.

What are the fair odds for Arsenal vs Liverpool?

On our numbers: Arsenal 1.92, draw 4.17, Liverpool 4.17. A back price shorter than that has no value on our model.

What time does Arsenal vs Liverpool kick off in India?

20:30 IST IST on Sat, 06 Feb 2027 (15:00 in the UK), at Emirates Stadium in London. Kick-offs can move for TV, so check again closer to the day.

How do I trade Arsenal vs Liverpool on the Goexch exchange?

On our numbers, back Arsenal at 1.92 or bigger, or lay Liverpool at 4.17 or smaller. Laying means you win if Liverpool do not win; at 4.17, a ₹100 lay risks ₹317. Prices move before and during the match, so check the live back and lay odds first.

Arsenal vs Liverpool match kaun jeetega?

Goexch goals model mein Arsenal aage hain: Arsenal 52%, draw 24%, Liverpool 24%. Sabse sambhav score 1-0 hai. Yeh sirf anumaan hai, guarantee nahi.

Will both teams score in Arsenal vs Liverpool?

We put both teams to score at 54%, so we lean yes. Over 2.5 goals is 53%.

Can Liverpool cause an upset?

Yes, with an early goal, a disciplined defence and a quiet day for Arsenal's attack. We give Liverpool a 24% chance.

How many goals are expected in Arsenal vs Liverpool?

2.8 expected goals in total. The most likely number of goals is 2, and a 0-0 comes up 6% of the time.

Dates and kick-off times follow the published Premier League fixture list and can move for TV or cup commitments. Win percentages, projected scores and picks on this page come from the Goexch model, built on team strength, venue history and conditions. They are estimates, not guarantees, and bets are settled on the live exchange odds you take. 18+ only. Set a budget before you bet and play responsibly.

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