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FootballPremier League · Merseyside derby

Liverpool vs Everton prediction

By Goexch Football Desk, Premier League analysisUpdated

Goexch verdictStrong lean

On our numbers, Liverpool beat Everton 82% of the time, with the draw at 13%. We project 2.52 expected goals to 0.49 and a 2-0 score, with over 2.5 goals at 58%. Kick-off: Sat, 30 Jan 2027, 20:30 IST IST at Anfield.

Exchange view

Fair prices

  1. LiverpoolPick

    82%
    Back1.22Lay1.22

  2. Draw

    13%
    Back7.69Lay7.69

  3. Everton

    5%
    Back20.00Lay20.00
Start
20:30
IST
Date
Sat, 30 Jan 2027 · 15:00 UK
Venue
Anfield, Liverpool

Back at the gold price or bigger, lay at it or smaller.

Quick read

Liverpool vs Everton in brief

  • Liverpool 82%, draw 13%, Everton 5%, which makes this a strong lean.
  • Predicted score 2-0, with goals expected (3.0 xG).
  • This is the Merseyside derby, so expect more cards and fewer clear chances.
Predicted score
2-0
Goexch pick
Liverpool
UK broadcast
Not televised yet
Projected cards
4.5-5.5

Exchange plan

How should you trade Liverpool vs Everton on Goexch?

Our fair prices for the pick and the outsider. Laying the outsider wins if the favourite wins or it ends in a draw.

  1. Back82% chance

    Liverpool1.22

    Take 1.22 or bigger. A ₹100 back at 1.22 returns ₹122, stake included.

  2. Lay5% chance

    Everton20.00

    Lay only at 20.00 or smaller. At 20.00, a ₹100 lay risks ₹1900 to win ₹100.

Key factors

What will decide this match?

Home advantage first, then expected goals and the factor with the most influence on this match.

  1. Home advantage

    Edge: Liverpool

    Liverpool are the stronger side and at home, which our model values at just over a fifth of a goal. Both advantages add up.

  2. Expected goals

    Edge: Goals

    3.0 expected goals is above the league average, and over 2.5 goals lands 58% of the time in our simulations.

  3. Derby intensity

    Edge: Draw

    The Merseyside derby brings extra intensity, more fouls and a projected 4.5-5.5 cards. Derbies often finish closer than the league table suggests.

Goals model

How many goals will there be in Liverpool vs Everton?

Our model's chance of each goal total, with the most likely outcome in gold.

012345+

total goals

Both teams score
36%
Over 2.5 goals
58%
Expected goals
2.52 – 0.49
Half-time call
1-0

Team set-up

How will the two teams line up?

Confirmed line-ups are published about an hour before kick-off.

Home

Liverpool

Liverpool have a squad deep enough to challenge for the title. They squeeze opponents at Anfield, so Everton will need a disciplined low block to stay in the game.

Away

Everton

Everton are a practical mid-table side: solid without the ball on their trip to Anfield, but lacking the creativity to run a game.

Risk radar

What could change the prediction?

The news that would move our numbers before kick-off.

  • If Liverpool name a weakened XI

    Rotation or a missing key player would cut several points from their win chance. Line-ups are out an hour before kick-off.

  • If Everton score first

    The favourite has to chase the game, and both the draw and the upset become much more likely.

  • If a red card comes in the first hour

    Going down to ten men changes the expected-goals picture completely, whichever side it hits.

Preview

Liverpool vs Everton match preview

Liverpool host Everton in front of their own fans, and the Goexch numbers lean towards Liverpool. Because this is the Merseyside derby, form counts for less than usual, and we have pulled the numbers closer together to reflect that. The expected-goals gap (2.52 for Liverpool, 0.49 for Everton) is the clearest signal, and it is where our 82% for Liverpool comes from. Everton's best chance is to keep it level into the last 30 minutes, when the draw becomes a real possibility.

Calendar

Calendar check: Liverpool and Everton

Recovery time and the next fixture for both clubs, from the published Premier League schedule.

Liverpool play 7 days after their game away at Man Utd on 23 Jan. After this, they go away at Arsenal 7 days after this one. League game 23 of 38.

Everton play 7 days after their game at home to Brentford on 23 Jan. After this, they go at home to Newcastle 7 days after this one. League game 23 of 38.

These sides already met at Hill Dickinson Stadium on Sun, 29 Nov 2026, making this the return fixture.

  1. 23 JanMan Utd vs LiverpoolOld Trafford
  2. 23 JanEverton vs BrentfordHill Dickinson Stadium
  3. 30 JanLiverpool vs EvertonAnfield
  4. 06 FebArsenal vs LiverpoolEmirates Stadium
  5. 06 FebEverton vs NewcastleHill Dickinson Stadium

Keep reading

More Liverpool and Everton predictions

  1. 29 NovEverton vs LiverpoolPremier League · 17:30 IST
  2. 06 FebArsenal vs LiverpoolPremier League · 20:30 IST
  3. 10 FebCoventry City vs LiverpoolPremier League · 01:30 IST, next day
  4. 06 FebEverton vs Newcastle UnitedPremier League · 20:30 IST
  5. 10 FebEverton vs Leeds UnitedPremier League · 01:30 IST, next day
  6. 30 JanAFC Bournemouth vs FulhamPremier League · 20:30 IST

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FAQ · 9

Liverpool vs Everton FAQs

Short, direct answers to the questions fans ask most.

Still unsure? Ask the Goexch team on WhatsApp

Who will win Liverpool vs Everton?

Goexch predicts Liverpool to win. Our goals model gives Liverpool 82%, the draw 13% and Everton 5%, which we class as a strong lean.

What is the predicted score for Liverpool vs Everton?

Our predicted score is 2-0, with 1-0 at half-time. The most common exact score across our simulations is 2-0, at 16%.

What are the fair odds for Liverpool vs Everton?

On our numbers: Liverpool 1.22, draw 7.69, Everton 20.00. A back price shorter than that has no value on our model.

What time does Liverpool vs Everton kick off in India?

20:30 IST IST on Sat, 30 Jan 2027 (15:00 in the UK), at Anfield in Liverpool. Kick-offs can move for TV, so check again closer to the day.

How do I trade Liverpool vs Everton on the Goexch exchange?

On our numbers, back Liverpool at 1.22 or bigger, or lay Everton at 20.00 or smaller. Laying means you win if Everton do not win; at 20.00, a ₹100 lay risks ₹1900. Prices move before and during the match, so check the live back and lay odds first.

Liverpool vs Everton match kaun jeetega?

Goexch goals model mein Liverpool aage hain: Liverpool 82%, draw 13%, Everton 5%. Sabse sambhav score 2-0 hai. Yeh sirf anumaan hai, guarantee nahi.

How many goals are expected in Liverpool vs Everton?

3.0 expected goals in total. The most likely number of goals is 3, and a 0-0 comes up 5% of the time.

Is betting on the Premier League legal in India?

Online betting rules in India are set at both the central and state level, and the Promotion and Regulation of Online Gaming Act, 2025 restricts online real-money games. Check the law that applies where you live before you play. This is general information, not legal advice, and you must be 18 or older.

Will both teams score in Liverpool vs Everton?

We put both teams to score at 36%, so we lean no. Over 2.5 goals is 58%.

Dates and kick-off times follow the published Premier League fixture list and can move for TV or cup commitments. Win percentages, projected scores and picks on this page come from the Goexch model, built on team strength, venue history and conditions. They are estimates, not guarantees, and bets are settled on the live exchange odds you take. 18+ only. Set a budget before you bet and play responsibly.

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