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FootballPremier League 2026/27

Manchester United vs Liverpool prediction

By Goexch Football Desk, Premier League analysisUpdated

Goexch verdictSlight lean

On our numbers, Liverpool beat Man Utd 52% of the time, with the draw at 24%. We project 1.07 expected goals to 1.69 and a 0-1 score, with over 2.5 goals at 52%. Kick-off: Sat, 23 Jan 2027, 20:30 IST IST at Old Trafford.

Exchange view

Fair prices

  1. Manchester United

    24%
    Back4.17Lay4.17

  2. Draw

    24%
    Back4.17Lay4.17

  3. LiverpoolPick

    52%
    Back1.92Lay1.92
Start
20:30
IST
Date
Sat, 23 Jan 2027 · 15:00 UK
Venue
Old Trafford, Manchester

Back at the gold price or bigger, lay at it or smaller.

Quick read

Man Utd vs Liverpool in brief

  • Liverpool 52%, draw 24%, Man Utd 24%, which makes this a slight lean.
  • Predicted score 0-1, with the goals line finely balanced (2.8 xG).
  • Both teams to score: 53% on our model.
Predicted score
0-1
Goexch pick
Liverpool
UK broadcast
Not televised yet
Projected cards
3.5-4.5

Exchange plan

How should you trade Man Utd vs Liverpool on Goexch?

Our fair prices for the pick and the outsider. Laying the outsider wins if the favourite wins or it ends in a draw.

  1. Back52% chance

    Liverpool1.92

    Take 1.92 or bigger. A ₹100 back at 1.92 returns ₹192, stake included.

  2. Lay24% chance

    Manchester United4.17

    Lay only at 4.17 or smaller. At 4.17, a ₹100 lay risks ₹317 to win ₹100.

Key factors

What will decide this match?

Home advantage first, then expected goals and the factor with the most influence on this match.

  1. Home advantage

    Edge: Even

    Home support is worth about a fifth of a goal to Man Utd. That narrows the gap but does not cancel Liverpool's extra quality.

  2. Expected goals

    Edge: Even

    At 2.8 expected goals, the 2.5 line is close to 50/50 (52% for the over).

  3. Quality gap

    Edge: Liverpool

    Liverpool rate clearly higher and the draw is only 24%. If they score first, the match should go their way.

Goals model

How many goals will there be in Man Utd vs Liverpool?

Our model's chance of each goal total, with the most likely outcome in gold.

012345+

total goals

Both teams score
53%
Over 2.5 goals
52%
Expected goals
1.07 – 1.69
Half-time call
0-0

Team set-up

How will the two teams line up?

Confirmed line-ups are published about an hour before kick-off.

Home

Manchester United

Man Utd are organised and hard to break down, and they usually get results at Old Trafford by winning the midfield.

Away

Liverpool

Liverpool are built to dominate the ball. They should have most of the possession on their trip to Old Trafford and keep Man Utd pinned in their own half for long spells.

Risk radar

What could change the prediction?

The news that would move our numbers before kick-off.

  • If Liverpool name a weakened XI

    Rotation or a missing key player would cut several points from their win chance. Line-ups are out an hour before kick-off.

  • If Man Utd score first

    The favourite has to chase the game, and both the draw and the upset become much more likely.

  • If a red card comes in the first hour

    Going down to ten men changes the expected-goals picture completely, whichever side it hits.

Preview

Man Utd vs Liverpool match preview

Liverpool visit Old Trafford in a 2026/27 Premier League match that the Goexch model rates as a slight lean. We project 1.07 expected goals for Man Utd and 1.69 for Liverpool. Across thousands of simulated matches, Liverpool win 52% of them. An early goal would change everything for Man Utd. Teams chasing a game leave gaps, and that is where upsets come from.

Calendar

Calendar check: Man Utd and Liverpool

Recovery time and the next fixture for both clubs, from the published Premier League schedule.

Man Utd play 7 days after their game away at Villa on 16 Jan. After this, they go away at Brentford 7 days after this one. League game 22 of 38.

Liverpool play 7 days after their game at home to Palace on 16 Jan. After this, they go at home to Everton 7 days after this one. League game 22 of 38.

These sides already met at Anfield on Sun, 22 Nov 2026, making this the return fixture.

  1. 16 JanVilla vs Man UtdVilla Park
  2. 16 JanLiverpool vs PalaceAnfield
  3. 23 JanMan Utd vs LiverpoolOld Trafford
  4. 30 JanBrentford vs Man UtdGtech Community Stadium
  5. 30 JanLiverpool vs EvertonAnfield

Keep reading

More Man Utd and Liverpool predictions

  1. 22 NovLiverpool vs Manchester UnitedPremier League · 22:00 IST
  2. 30 JanBrentford vs Manchester UnitedPremier League · 20:30 IST
  3. 06 FebManchester United vs ChelseaPremier League · 20:30 IST
  4. 30 JanLiverpool vs EvertonPremier League · 20:30 IST
  5. 06 FebArsenal vs LiverpoolPremier League · 20:30 IST
  6. 23 JanArsenal vs Newcastle UnitedPremier League · 20:30 IST

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FAQ · 9

Manchester United vs Liverpool FAQs

Short, direct answers to the questions fans ask most.

Still unsure? Ask the Goexch team on WhatsApp

Who will win Man Utd vs Liverpool?

Goexch predicts Liverpool to win. Our goals model gives Man Utd 24%, the draw 24% and Liverpool 52%, which we class as a slight lean.

What is the predicted score for Manchester United vs Liverpool?

Our predicted score is 0-1, with 0-0 at half-time. The most common exact score across our simulations is 1-1, at 11%.

What are the fair odds for Man Utd vs Liverpool?

On our numbers: Man Utd 4.17, draw 4.17, Liverpool 1.92. A back price shorter than that has no value on our model.

What time does Manchester United vs Liverpool kick off in India?

20:30 IST IST on Sat, 23 Jan 2027 (15:00 in the UK), at Old Trafford in Manchester. Kick-offs can move for TV, so check again closer to the day.

How do I trade Man Utd vs Liverpool on the Goexch exchange?

On our numbers, back Liverpool at 1.92 or bigger, or lay Manchester United at 4.17 or smaller. Laying means you win if Manchester United do not win; at 4.17, a ₹100 lay risks ₹317. Prices move before and during the match, so check the live back and lay odds first.

Man Utd vs Liverpool match kaun jeetega?

Goexch goals model mein Liverpool aage hain: Man Utd 24%, draw 24%, Liverpool 52%. Sabse sambhav score 0-1 hai. Yeh sirf anumaan hai, guarantee nahi.

Where can I watch Man Utd vs Liverpool?

Indian TV rights change between seasons, so check the official Premier League listings near the day.

Will both teams score in Man Utd vs Liverpool?

We put both teams to score at 53%, so we lean yes. Over 2.5 goals is 52%.

Can Man Utd cause an upset?

Yes, with an early goal, a disciplined defence and a quiet day for Liverpool's attack. We give Man Utd a 24% chance.

Dates and kick-off times follow the published Premier League fixture list and can move for TV or cup commitments. Win percentages, projected scores and picks on this page come from the Goexch model, built on team strength, venue history and conditions. They are estimates, not guarantees, and bets are settled on the live exchange odds you take. 18+ only. Set a budget before you bet and play responsibly.

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