FootballPremier League · Merseyside derby

Everton vs Liverpool prediction

By Goexch Football Desk, Premier League analysisUpdated 14 Oct 2026

Goexch verdictClear lean

On our numbers, Liverpool beat Everton 58% of the time, with the draw at 23%. We project 0.92 expected goals to 1.81 and a 0-1 score, with over 2.5 goals at 51%. Kick-off: Sun, 29 Nov 2026, 17:30 IST IST at Hill Dickinson Stadium.

Exchange view

Fair prices

Everton
19%
Back5.26Lay5.26
Draw
23%
Back4.35Lay4.35
LiverpoolPick
58%
Back1.72Lay1.72

Start: 17:30; IST
Date: Sun, 29 Nov 2026 · 12:00 UK
Venue: Hill Dickinson Stadium, Liverpool

Back at the gold price or bigger, lay at it or smaller.

Quick read

Everton vs Liverpool in brief

Liverpool 58%, draw 23%, Everton 19%, which makes this a clear lean.
Predicted score 0-1, with the goals line finely balanced (2.7 xG).
This is the Merseyside derby, so expect more cards and fewer clear chances.

Predicted score: 0-1
Goexch pick: Liverpool
UK broadcast: TNT Sports
Projected cards: 4.5-5.5

Exchange plan

How should you trade Everton vs Liverpool on Goexch?

Our fair prices for the pick and the outsider. Laying the outsider wins if the favourite wins or it ends in a draw.

Back58% chance
Liverpool1.72
Take 1.72 or bigger. A ₹100 back at 1.72 returns ₹172, stake included.
Lay19% chance
Everton5.26
Lay only at 5.26 or smaller. At 5.26, a ₹100 lay risks ₹426 to win ₹100.

Key factors

What will decide this match?

Home advantage first, then expected goals and the factor with the most influence on this match.

Home advantage
Edge: Even
Home support is worth about a fifth of a goal to Everton. That narrows the gap but does not cancel Liverpool's extra quality.
Expected goals
Edge: Even
At 2.7 expected goals, the 2.5 line is close to 50/50 (51% for the over).
Derby intensity
Edge: Draw
The Merseyside derby brings extra intensity, more fouls and a projected 4.5-5.5 cards. Derbies often finish closer than the league table suggests.

Goals model

How many goals will there be in Everton vs Liverpool?

Our model's chance of each goal total, with the most likely outcome in gold.

18%

24%

22%

15%

14%

012345+

total goals

Both teams score: 50%
Over 2.5 goals: 51%
Expected goals: 0.92 – 1.81
Half-time call: 0-0

Market menu

Three tickets from safest to riskiest, each with our chance and the fair odds it needs.

Anchor
Draw no bet
Back Liverpool
Chance76%Fair odds1.32
You get your stake back if it ends level, so only a Everton win loses.
Value
Total goals
Under 3.5
Chance71%Fair odds1.41
A tight game is the most likely outcome, and four or more goals would be unusual.
Long shot
Correct score
Everton 0-1 Liverpool
Chance12%Fair odds8.33
The model's most likely score. Correct-score markets pay well but rarely land, so keep the stake small.

Team set-up

How will the two teams line up?

Confirmed line-ups are published about an hour before kick-off.

Home

Everton

Everton are a practical mid-table side: solid without the ball at Hill Dickinson Stadium, but lacking the creativity to run a game.

Away

Liverpool

Liverpool have a squad deep enough to challenge for the title. They squeeze opponents on their trip to Hill Dickinson Stadium, so Everton will need a disciplined low block to stay in the game.

Risk radar

What could change the prediction?

The news that would move our numbers before kick-off.

If Liverpool name a weakened XI
Rotation or a missing key player would cut several points from their win chance. Line-ups are out an hour before kick-off.
If Everton score first
The favourite has to chase the game, and both the draw and the upset become much more likely.
If a red card comes in the first hour
Going down to ten men changes the expected-goals picture completely, whichever side it hits.

Preview

Everton vs Liverpool match preview

Everton host Liverpool in front of their own fans, and the Goexch numbers lean towards Liverpool. Because this is the Merseyside derby, form counts for less than usual, and we have pulled the numbers closer together to reflect that. The expected-goals gap (0.92 for Everton, 1.81 for Liverpool) is the clearest signal, and it is where our 58% for Liverpool comes from. Everton's best chance is to keep it level into the last 30 minutes, when the draw becomes a real possibility.

Calendar

Calendar check: Everton and Liverpool

Recovery time and the next fixture for both clubs, from the published Premier League schedule.

Everton play 6 days after their game away at Brentford on 23 Nov. After this, they go away at Villa 3 days after this one, so some rotation is possible. League game 12 of 38.

Liverpool play 7 days after their game at home to Man Utd on 22 Nov. After this, they go at home to Sunderland 3 days after this one, so some rotation is possible. League game 12 of 38.

They meet again at Anfield on Sat, 30 Jan 2027, so this is the first of two league meetings. UK broadcaster: TNT Sports.

22 NovLiverpool vs Man UtdAnfield
23 NovBrentford vs EvertonGtech Community Stadium
29 NovEverton vs LiverpoolHill Dickinson Stadium
02 DecVilla vs EvertonVilla Park
02 DecLiverpool vs SunderlandAnfield

Keep reading

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FAQ · 9

Everton vs Liverpool FAQs

Short, direct answers to the questions fans ask most.

Still unsure? Ask the Goexch team on WhatsApp

Who will win Everton vs Liverpool?

Goexch predicts Liverpool to win. Our goals model gives Everton 19%, the draw 23% and Liverpool 58%, which we class as a clear lean.

What is the predicted score for Everton vs Liverpool?

Our predicted score is 0-1, with 0-0 at half-time. The most common exact score across our simulations is 0-1, at 12%.

What are the fair odds for Everton vs Liverpool?

On our numbers: Everton 5.26, draw 4.35, Liverpool 1.72. A back price shorter than that has no value on our model.

What time does Everton vs Liverpool kick off in India?

17:30 IST IST on Sun, 29 Nov 2026 (12:00 in the UK), at Hill Dickinson Stadium in Liverpool. Kick-offs can move for TV, so check again closer to the day.

How do I trade Everton vs Liverpool on the Goexch exchange?

On our numbers, back Liverpool at 1.72 or bigger, or lay Everton at 5.26 or smaller. Laying means you win if Everton do not win; at 5.26, a ₹100 lay risks ₹426. Prices move before and during the match, so check the live back and lay odds first.

Everton vs Liverpool match kaun jeetega?

Goexch goals model mein Liverpool aage hain: Everton 19%, draw 23%, Liverpool 58%. Sabse sambhav score 0-1 hai. Yeh sirf anumaan hai, guarantee nahi.

Is betting on the Premier League legal in India?

Online betting rules in India are set at both the central and state level, and the Promotion and Regulation of Online Gaming Act, 2025 restricts online real-money games. Check the law that applies where you live before you play. This is general information, not legal advice, and you must be 18 or older.

How many goals are expected in Everton vs Liverpool?

2.7 expected goals in total. The most likely number of goals is 2, and a 0-0 comes up 7% of the time.

Can Everton cause an upset?

Yes, with an early goal, a disciplined defence and a quiet day for Liverpool's attack. We give Everton a 19% chance.

Dates and kick-off times follow the published Premier League fixture list and can move for TV or cup commitments. Win percentages, projected scores and picks on this page come from the Goexch model, built on team strength, venue history and conditions. They are estimates, not guarantees, and bets are settled on the live exchange odds you take. 18+ only. Set a budget before you bet and play responsibly.

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