FootballPremier League 2026/27
Liverpool vs Newcastle United prediction
Goexch verdictClear lean
Liverpool are our pick (clear lean). The Goexch goals model gives them a 58% chance to win, a fair back price of 1.72, with the draw at 22%. We expect 2.9 goals and a 1-0 score, and both teams score in 54% of simulations. Kick-off: Sat, 10 Apr 2027, 19:30 IST IST at Anfield.
Quick read
Liverpool vs Newcastle in brief
- Liverpool 58%, draw 22%, Newcastle 20%, which makes this a clear lean.
- Predicted score 1-0, with goals expected (2.9 xG).
- Both teams to score: 54% on our model.
- Predicted score
- 1-0
- Goexch pick
- Liverpool
- UK broadcast
- Not televised yet
- Projected cards
- 3.5-4.5
Exchange plan
How should you trade Liverpool vs Newcastle on Goexch?
Our fair prices for the pick and the outsider. Laying the outsider wins if the favourite wins or it ends in a draw.
Back58% chance
Liverpool1.72
Take 1.72 or bigger. A ₹100 back at 1.72 returns ₹172, stake included.
Lay20% chance
Newcastle United5.00
Lay only at 5.00 or smaller. At 5.00, a ₹100 lay risks ₹400 to win ₹100.
Key factors
What will decide this match?
Home advantage first, then expected goals and the factor with the most influence on this match.
Home advantage
Edge: Liverpool
Liverpool are the stronger side and at home, which our model values at just over a fifth of a goal. Both advantages add up.
Expected goals
Edge: Goals
2.9 expected goals is above the league average, and over 2.5 goals lands 55% of the time in our simulations.
Quality gap
Edge: Liverpool
Liverpool rate clearly higher and the draw is only 22%. If they score first, the match should go their way.
Goals model
How many goals will there be in Liverpool vs Newcastle?
Our model's chance of each goal total, with the most likely outcome in gold.
total goals
- Both teams score
- 54%
- Over 2.5 goals
- 55%
- Expected goals
- 1.87 – 1.01
- Half-time call
- 0-0
Team set-up
How will the two teams line up?
Confirmed line-ups are published about an hour before kick-off.
Home
Liverpool
Liverpool are built to dominate the ball. They should have most of the possession at Anfield and keep Newcastle pinned in their own half for long spells.
Away
Newcastle United
Newcastle are organised and hard to break down, and they usually get results on their trip to Anfield by winning the midfield.
Risk radar
What could change the prediction?
The news that would move our numbers before kick-off.
If Liverpool name a weakened XI
Rotation or a missing key player would cut several points from their win chance. Line-ups are out an hour before kick-off.
If Newcastle score first
The favourite has to chase the game, and both the draw and the upset become much more likely.
If a red card comes in the first hour
Going down to ten men changes the expected-goals picture completely, whichever side it hits.
Preview
Liverpool vs Newcastle match preview
Newcastle United visit Anfield in a 2026/27 Premier League match that the Goexch model rates as a clear lean. We project 1.87 expected goals for Liverpool and 1.01 for Newcastle. Across thousands of simulated matches, Liverpool win 58% of them. An early goal would change everything for Newcastle. Teams chasing a game leave gaps, and that is where upsets come from.
Calendar
Calendar check: Liverpool and Newcastle
Recovery time and the next fixture for both clubs, from the published Premier League schedule.
Liverpool play 21 days after their game away at Fulham on 20 Mar, with an international break in between, so rhythm could be rusty. After this, they go away at Forest 7 days after this one. League game 31 of 38.
Newcastle play 21 days after their game at home to Leeds on 20 Mar, with an international break in between, so rhythm could be rusty. After this, they go at home to Spurs 7 days after this one. League game 31 of 38.
These sides already met at St James' Park on Sun, 23 Aug 2026, making this the return fixture.
Keep reading
More Liverpool and Newcastle predictions
- 17 AprNottingham Forest vs LiverpoolPremier League · 19:30 IST
- 24 AprLeeds United vs LiverpoolPremier League · 19:30 IST
- 17 AprNewcastle United vs Tottenham HotspurPremier League · 19:30 IST
- 24 AprNewcastle United vs Ipswich TownPremier League · 19:30 IST
- 10 AprAFC Bournemouth vs Manchester CityPremier League · 19:30 IST
- 10 AprAston Villa vs Brighton & Hove AlbionPremier League · 19:30 IST
FAQ · 9
Liverpool vs Newcastle United FAQs
Short, direct answers to the questions fans ask most.
Still unsure? Ask the Goexch team on WhatsApp
Who will win Liverpool vs Newcastle?
Goexch predicts Liverpool to win. Our goals model gives Liverpool 58%, the draw 22% and Newcastle 20%, which we class as a clear lean.
What is the predicted score for Liverpool vs Newcastle United?
Our predicted score is 1-0, with 0-0 at half-time. The most common exact score across our simulations is 1-1, at 11%.
What are the fair odds for Liverpool vs Newcastle?
On our numbers: Liverpool 1.72, draw 4.55, Newcastle 5.00. A back price shorter than that has no value on our model.
What time does Liverpool vs Newcastle United kick off in India?
19:30 IST IST on Sat, 10 Apr 2027 (15:00 in the UK), at Anfield in Liverpool. Kick-offs can move for TV, so check again closer to the day.
How do I trade Liverpool vs Newcastle on the Goexch exchange?
On our numbers, back Liverpool at 1.72 or bigger, or lay Newcastle United at 5.00 or smaller. Laying means you win if Newcastle United do not win; at 5.00, a ₹100 lay risks ₹400. Prices move before and during the match, so check the live back and lay odds first.
Liverpool vs Newcastle match kaun jeetega?
Goexch goals model mein Liverpool aage hain: Liverpool 58%, draw 22%, Newcastle 20%. Sabse sambhav score 1-0 hai. Yeh sirf anumaan hai, guarantee nahi.
Will both teams score in Liverpool vs Newcastle?
We put both teams to score at 54%, so we lean yes. Over 2.5 goals is 55%.
How many goals are expected in Liverpool vs Newcastle?
2.9 expected goals in total. The most likely number of goals is 2, and a 0-0 comes up 6% of the time.
Can Newcastle cause an upset?
Yes, with an early goal, a disciplined defence and a quiet day for Liverpool's attack. We give Newcastle a 20% chance.
Dates and kick-off times follow the published Premier League fixture list and can move for TV or cup commitments. Win percentages, projected scores and picks on this page come from the Goexch model, built on team strength, venue history and conditions. They are estimates, not guarantees, and bets are settled on the live exchange odds you take. 18+ only. Set a budget before you bet and play responsibly.
Check it at the source
Sources and official information
- Premier League fixturesOfficial fixture list, kick-off times and results.Premier League
- Laws of the GameThe official laws of football, including stoppage time and match duration.IFAB
- FIFAWorld Cup fixtures, results and tournament regulations.FIFA
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