CricketIndia tour of New Zealand, 2026 · match 11 of 12
New Zealand vs India 1st Test prediction
Goexch verdictSlight lean
On our numbers, India win 55% of the time against New Zealand, which makes this a slight lean. We expect 252 from New Zealand and 258 from India at Basin Reserve, where the quicks should have the edge. The match starts Thu, 26 Nov 2026 (start time not yet confirmed).
Quick read
NZ vs IND 1st Test in brief
- India at 55%, a slight lean. Back only at 1.82 or bigger.
- Pitch suits seamers, and India are projected to post the bigger total.
- New Zealand are playing in home conditions.
- Goexch pick
- India
- Format
- Test match
- Pitch
- green, seam-friendly
- Favours
- Seamers
Exchange plan
How should you trade NZ vs IND on Goexch?
Our fair prices for both sides. Back the pick at the price or bigger; lay the outsider at the price or smaller.
Back55% chance
India1.82
Take 1.82 or bigger. A ₹100 back at 1.82 returns ₹182, stake included.
Lay45% chance
New Zealand2.22
Lay only at 2.22 or smaller. At 2.22, a ₹100 lay risks ₹122 to win ₹100.
Key factors
What will decide this match?
The pitch comes first, followed by the two factors with the most influence on this match.
Pitch read
Edge: New Zealand
Live grass and early moisture mean the new ball will move. The first 15 overs are the danger period, and batting gets noticeably easier after that. New Zealand play on this kind of pitch all the time.
Even batting
Edge: Even
Only 6 runs separate the projected totals, so the batting is close to level. One big individual innings is the likeliest tiebreaker.
Toss call
Edge: Toss winner
Insert the opposition. Early help for the seamers is too valuable to give away.
Projection
How many runs will New Zealand and India score?
Projected session-by-session runs on day one, on a green, seam-friendly surface at Basin Reserve.
- Session 1
- NZ73-89IND82-96
- Session 2
- NZ84-102IND85-101
- Session 3
- NZ70-86IND69-83
Match-winners
Who can swing New Zealand vs India?
Impact scores estimate how likely each player is to decide the result. XIs are confirmed at the toss.
New Zealand
Matt Henry88
Dangerous with the new ball
Devon Conway94
Valuable runs at number seven
India
Shreyas Iyer81
Built for long innings
Mohammed Siraj94
Dangerous with the new ball
Risk radar
What could change the prediction?
The news that would move our numbers before the first ball.
If Shreyas Iyer is left out
We would cut India by about five points, making this a coin flip.
If New Zealand win the toss
On a pitch where the toss matters, that alone moves a couple of points to New Zealand.
If rain washes out a day or more
The draw becomes the most likely result, and our win call loses most of its value.
Preview
New Zealand vs India match preview
Match 11 of 12 is where India tour of New Zealand, 2026 starts to take shape. The Goexch model leans to India at 55%, mainly on squad strength and how Basin Reserve has played in recent seasons. New Zealand are at home, and the model adds a few percentage points for that. New Zealand are still in this at 45%, but they need their best players to fire on the same day.
On the toss: Insert the opposition. Early help for the seamers is too valuable to give away.
Series window, not a confirmed XI date. Confirm the date on match day.
Calendar
Calendar check: 1st Test
Recovery time, travel and the next fixture in India tour of New Zealand, 2026.
Basin Reserve in Wellington hosts the 1st Test on Thu, 26 Nov 2026: fixture 11 of 12 in the series.
The previous fixture, the 5th ODI, was played 3 days before this one at Bay Oval in Mount Maunganui, which means a travel day to Wellington in between. That is enough rest for both teams to pick their strongest XIs.
Up next: the 2nd Test, 4 days after this match at Hagley Oval in Christchurch.
Keep reading
More cricket predictions
FAQ · 9
NZ vs IND 1st Test FAQs
Short, direct answers to the questions fans ask most.
Still unsure? Ask the Goexch team on WhatsApp
Who will win New Zealand vs India?
Goexch predicts India to win, with a 55% chance against 45% for New Zealand, which we class as a slight lean. The call combines team ratings, home advantage and how a green, seam-friendly pitch at Basin Reserve is likely to play.
What are the fair odds for India in the NZ vs IND 1st Test?
Our 55% rating works out to fair decimal odds of 1.82 for India and 2.22 for New Zealand. If the back price on the exchange is shorter than that, the bet has no value on our numbers.
What time does the NZ vs IND 1st Test start in India?
The series window puts it on Thu, 26 Nov 2026 (start time not yet confirmed) at Basin Reserve, Wellington, but the board has not confirmed the date or start time yet. We update this page as soon as it does.
What is the pitch report for Basin Reserve?
We expect a green, seam-friendly pitch that should help the quicks. Live grass and early moisture mean the new ball will move. The first 15 overs are the danger period, and batting gets noticeably easier after that.
Should the captain bat or bowl first in NZ vs IND?
Insert the opposition. Early help for the seamers is too valuable to give away. The toss happens about 30 minutes before the start, when both XIs are confirmed.
Can New Zealand win this match?
Yes, but they need early wickets or a match-winning innings. We give New Zealand a 45% chance, and that rises if they win a toss that matters or if India change their best XI.
How do I trade New Zealand vs India on the Goexch exchange?
On our numbers, back India at 1.82 or bigger, or lay New Zealand at 2.22 or smaller. Laying means you win if New Zealand do not win; at 2.22, a ₹100 lay risks ₹122. Prices move before and during the match, so check the live back and lay odds first.
New Zealand vs India match kaun jeetega?
Goexch model ke hisaab se India ka chance zyada hai: 55%, jabki New Zealand ka 45%. Match Thu, 26 Nov 2026 (start time not yet confirmed) shuru hoga. Yeh sirf anumaan hai, guarantee nahi.
Wellington ki pitch report kya hai?
Hamare hisaab se pitch green, seam-friendly rahegi, yaani fast bowlers ko shuru mein swing aur seam milega. Toss match shuru hone se lagbhag aadha ghanta pehle hoga.
Win percentages, projected scores and picks on this page come from the Goexch model, built on team strength, venue history and conditions. They are estimates, not guarantees, and bets are settled on the live exchange odds you take. 18+ only. Set a budget before you bet and play responsibly.
Check it at the source
Sources and official information
- ICCICC tournament fixtures, results, rankings and team news.International Cricket Council
- ICC playing conditionsOfficial match rules for Tests, ODIs and T20Is, including rain-affected matches.International Cricket Council
- ESPNcricinfoScorecards, venue records and player statistics.ESPN
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