CricketSri Lanka tour of New Zealand, 2027 · match 1 of 8
New Zealand vs Sri Lanka 1st ODI prediction
Goexch verdict
New Zealand are our pick (strong lean). The Goexch model gives them a 66% chance against Sri Lanka in the 1st ODI at McLean Park, which is a fair back price of 1.52. We project New Zealand to make 328 and Sri Lanka 308 on a pitch that suits neither side. Start: Sat, 16 Jan 2027 (start time not yet confirmed).
Quick read
NZ vs SL 1st ODI in brief
- New Zealand at 66%, a strong lean. Back only at 1.52 or bigger.
- Even pitch, and New Zealand are projected to post the bigger total.
- New Zealand are playing in home conditions.
- Goexch pick
- New Zealand
- Format
- ODI · 50 overs
- Pitch
- balanced, dry
- Favours
- Balanced
Exchange plan
How should you trade NZ vs SL on Goexch?
Our fair prices for both sides. Back the pick at the price or bigger; lay the outsider at the price or smaller.
Back66% chance
New Zealand1.52
Take 1.52 or bigger. A ₹100 back at 1.52 returns ₹152, stake included.
Lay34% chance
Sri Lanka2.94
Lay only at 2.94 or smaller. At 2.94, a ₹100 lay risks ₹194 to win ₹100.
Key factors
What will decide this match?
The pitch comes first, followed by the two factors with the most influence on this match.
Pitch read
Edge: Even
An even contest is likely. Expect phase scores near the format average, with the side that executes better coming out on top. Neither attack gets a special advantage.
Toss call
Edge: Even
Neither option at the toss looks decisive on this surface.
Batting edge
Edge: New Zealand
Our projection gives New Zealand a 20-run cushion, and that is the biggest single reason the model leans their way.
Projection
How many runs will New Zealand and Sri Lanka score?
Projected runs in each phase of the first innings, on a balanced, dry surface at McLean Park.
- Powerplay (0-10)
- NZ48-60SL47-57
- Middle Overs (11-40)
- NZ169-189SL161-181
- Death Overs (41-50)
- NZ86-104SL77-93
Match-winners
Who can swing New Zealand vs Sri Lanka?
Impact scores estimate how likely each player is to decide the result. XIs are confirmed at the toss.
New Zealand
Rachin Ravindra88
Balances the XI
Trent Boult90
Trusted at the end of the innings
Sri Lanka
Charith Asalanka97
Steady hand in a chase
Angelo Mathews93
Balances the XI
Risk radar
What could change the prediction?
The news that would move our numbers before the first ball.
If Rachin Ravindra is left out
We would cut New Zealand by about five points, making this a clear lean.
If the pitch looks drier or greener than expected at the toss
Extra help for the bowlers would close the gap between the two batting line-ups.
If rain shortens the match
Fewer overs add randomness, which helps the underdog.
Preview
New Zealand vs Sri Lanka match preview
The opening game of Sri Lanka tour of New Zealand, 2027 sets the tone for the rest of the series, and both teams know it. We think New Zealand have the better side for a balanced, dry ODI pitch, and the model puts them at 66%. New Zealand are at home, and the model adds a few percentage points for that. Sri Lanka's best chance of an upset is the first hour. If they get on top early, our 34% for them starts to look low.
On the toss: Neither option at the toss looks decisive on this surface.
Series window, not a confirmed XI date. Confirm the date on match day.
Calendar
Calendar check: 1st ODI
Recovery time, travel and the next fixture in Sri Lanka tour of New Zealand, 2027.
McLean Park in Napier hosts the 1st ODI on Sat, 16 Jan 2027: fixture 1 of 8 in the series.
As the series opener, there is no head-to-head evidence from this tour yet, so the market leans on reputation.
Up next: the 2nd ODI, 4 days after this match at Sky Stadium in Wellington.
Keep reading
More cricket predictions
FAQ · 9
NZ vs SL 1st ODI FAQs
Short, direct answers to the questions fans ask most.
Still unsure? Ask the Goexch team on WhatsApp
Who will win New Zealand vs Sri Lanka?
Goexch predicts New Zealand to win, with a 66% chance against 34% for Sri Lanka, which we class as a strong lean. The call combines team ratings, home advantage and how a balanced, dry pitch at McLean Park is likely to play.
What are the fair odds for New Zealand in the NZ vs SL 1st ODI?
Our 66% rating works out to fair decimal odds of 1.52 for New Zealand and 2.94 for Sri Lanka. If the back price on the exchange is shorter than that, the bet has no value on our numbers.
What time does the NZ vs SL 1st ODI start in India?
The series window puts it on Sat, 16 Jan 2027 (start time not yet confirmed) at McLean Park, Napier, but the board has not confirmed the date or start time yet. We update this page as soon as it does.
What is the pitch report for McLean Park?
We expect a balanced, dry pitch that should help neither side. An even contest is likely. Expect phase scores near the format average, with the side that executes better coming out on top.
Should the captain bat or bowl first in NZ vs SL?
Neither option at the toss looks decisive on this surface. The toss happens about 30 minutes before the start, when both XIs are confirmed.
Can Sri Lanka win this match?
Yes, but they need early wickets or a match-winning innings. We give Sri Lanka a 34% chance, and that rises if they win a toss that matters or if New Zealand change their best XI.
How do I trade New Zealand vs Sri Lanka on the Goexch exchange?
On our numbers, back New Zealand at 1.52 or bigger, or lay Sri Lanka at 2.94 or smaller. Laying means you win if Sri Lanka do not win; at 2.94, a ₹100 lay risks ₹194. Prices move before and during the match, so check the live back and lay odds first.
New Zealand vs Sri Lanka match kaun jeetega?
Goexch model ke hisaab se New Zealand ka chance zyada hai: 66%, jabki Sri Lanka ka 34%. Match Sat, 16 Jan 2027 (start time not yet confirmed) shuru hoga. Yeh sirf anumaan hai, guarantee nahi.
Napier ki pitch report kya hai?
Hamare hisaab se pitch balanced, dry rahegi, yaani bat aur ball dono ko barabar madad milegi. Toss match shuru hone se lagbhag aadha ghanta pehle hoga.
Win percentages, projected scores and picks on this page come from the Goexch model, built on team strength, venue history and conditions. They are estimates, not guarantees, and bets are settled on the live exchange odds you take. 18+ only. Set a budget before you bet and play responsibly.
Check it at the source
Sources and official information
- ICCICC tournament fixtures, results, rankings and team news.International Cricket Council
- ICC playing conditionsOfficial match rules for Tests, ODIs and T20Is, including rain-affected matches.International Cricket Council
- ESPNcricinfoScorecards, venue records and player statistics.ESPN
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