CricketSri Lanka tour of New Zealand, 2027 · match 7 of 8
New Zealand vs Sri Lanka 1st Test prediction
Goexch verdict
On our numbers, New Zealand win 64% of the time against Sri Lanka, which makes this a strong lean. We expect 273 from New Zealand and 256 from Sri Lanka at Bay Oval, where the batters should have the edge. The match starts Fri, 12 Feb 2027 (start time not yet confirmed).
Quick read
NZ vs SL 1st Test in brief
- New Zealand at 64%, a strong lean. Back only at 1.56 or bigger.
- Pitch suits batters, and New Zealand are projected to post the bigger total.
- New Zealand are playing in home conditions.
- Goexch pick
- New Zealand
- Format
- Test match
- Pitch
- flat, batter-friendly
- Favours
- Batters
Exchange plan
How should you trade NZ vs SL on Goexch?
Our fair prices for both sides. Back the pick at the price or bigger; lay the outsider at the price or smaller.
Back64% chance
New Zealand1.56
Take 1.56 or bigger. A ₹100 back at 1.56 returns ₹156, stake included.
Lay36% chance
Sri Lanka2.78
Lay only at 2.78 or smaller. At 2.78, a ₹100 lay risks ₹178 to win ₹100.
Key factors
What will decide this match?
The pitch comes first, followed by the two factors with the most influence on this match.
Pitch read
Edge: Even
Hard, true and quick, with short boundaries and a fast outfield. A below-par total will not be defended on this pitch. Both sides will rely on the batters, so the deeper attack matters.
Batting edge
Edge: New Zealand
Our projection gives New Zealand a 17-run cushion, and that is the biggest single reason the model leans their way.
Toss call
Edge: Even
Whatever the captain chooses, both teams should get the runs on offer.
Projection
How many runs will New Zealand and Sri Lanka score?
Projected session-by-session runs on day one, on a flat, batter-friendly surface at Bay Oval.
- Session 1
- NZ84-98SL78-94
- Session 2
- NZ89-105SL83-99
- Session 3
- NZ78-92SL71-87
Match-winners
Who can swing New Zealand vs Sri Lanka?
Impact scores estimate how likely each player is to decide the result. XIs are confirmed at the toss.
New Zealand
Matt Henry94
Hits the deck hard
Rachin Ravindra86
Gives the side a fifth bowler
Sri Lanka
Dushmantha Chameera91
Hits the deck hard
Pathum Nissanka84
Turns fifties into hundreds
Risk radar
What could change the prediction?
The news that would move our numbers before the first ball.
If Matt Henry is left out
We would cut New Zealand by about five points, making this a clear lean.
If the pitch looks drier or greener than expected at the toss
Extra help for the bowlers would close the gap between the two batting line-ups.
If rain washes out a day or more
The draw becomes the most likely result, and our win call loses most of its value.
Preview
New Zealand vs Sri Lanka match preview
With 1 match of Sri Lanka tour of New Zealand, 2027 still to come, game 7 can swing the series. The Goexch model leans to New Zealand at 64%, mainly on squad strength and how Bay Oval has played in recent seasons. New Zealand are at home, and the model adds a few percentage points for that. Sri Lanka are still in this at 36%, but they need their best players to fire on the same day.
On the toss: Whatever the captain chooses, both teams should get the runs on offer.
Series window, not a confirmed XI date. Confirm the date on match day.
Calendar
Calendar check: 1st Test
Recovery time, travel and the next fixture in Sri Lanka tour of New Zealand, 2027.
Bay Oval in Mount Maunganui hosts the 1st Test on Fri, 12 Feb 2027: fixture 7 of 8 in the series.
The previous fixture, the 3rd T20I, was played 5 days before this one at Saxton Oval in Nelson, which means a travel day to Mount Maunganui in between. A long break resets both camps, so the last game's momentum carries less weight than usual.
Up next: the 2nd Test, 4 days after this match at Seddon Park in Hamilton.
Also at Bay Oval on the Goexch schedule: 4th ODI: New Zealand vs India (19 Nov), 5th ODI: New Zealand vs India (23 Nov) (2 fixtures in all).
Keep reading
More cricket predictions
FAQ · 9
NZ vs SL 1st Test FAQs
Short, direct answers to the questions fans ask most.
Still unsure? Ask the Goexch team on WhatsApp
Who will win New Zealand vs Sri Lanka?
Goexch predicts New Zealand to win, with a 64% chance against 36% for Sri Lanka, which we class as a strong lean. The call combines team ratings, home advantage and how a flat, batter-friendly pitch at Bay Oval is likely to play.
What are the fair odds for New Zealand in the NZ vs SL 1st Test?
Our 64% rating works out to fair decimal odds of 1.56 for New Zealand and 2.78 for Sri Lanka. If the back price on the exchange is shorter than that, the bet has no value on our numbers.
What time does the NZ vs SL 1st Test start in India?
The series window puts it on Fri, 12 Feb 2027 (start time not yet confirmed) at Bay Oval, Mount Maunganui, but the board has not confirmed the date or start time yet. We update this page as soon as it does.
What is the pitch report for Bay Oval?
We expect a flat, batter-friendly pitch that should help the batters. Hard, true and quick, with short boundaries and a fast outfield. A below-par total will not be defended on this pitch.
Should the captain bat or bowl first in NZ vs SL?
Whatever the captain chooses, both teams should get the runs on offer. The toss happens about 30 minutes before the start, when both XIs are confirmed.
Can Sri Lanka win this match?
Yes, but they need early wickets or a match-winning innings. We give Sri Lanka a 36% chance, and that rises if they win a toss that matters or if New Zealand change their best XI.
How do I trade New Zealand vs Sri Lanka on the Goexch exchange?
On our numbers, back New Zealand at 1.56 or bigger, or lay Sri Lanka at 2.78 or smaller. Laying means you win if Sri Lanka do not win; at 2.78, a ₹100 lay risks ₹178. Prices move before and during the match, so check the live back and lay odds first.
New Zealand vs Sri Lanka match kaun jeetega?
Goexch model ke hisaab se New Zealand ka chance zyada hai: 64%, jabki Sri Lanka ka 36%. Match Fri, 12 Feb 2027 (start time not yet confirmed) shuru hoga. Yeh sirf anumaan hai, guarantee nahi.
Mount Maunganui ki pitch report kya hai?
Hamare hisaab se pitch flat, batter-friendly rahegi, yaani batting ke liye achhi pitch hai, bada score ban sakta hai. Toss match shuru hone se lagbhag aadha ghanta pehle hoga.
Win percentages, projected scores and picks on this page come from the Goexch model, built on team strength, venue history and conditions. They are estimates, not guarantees, and bets are settled on the live exchange odds you take. 18+ only. Set a budget before you bet and play responsibly.
Check it at the source
Sources and official information
- ICCICC tournament fixtures, results, rankings and team news.International Cricket Council
- ICC playing conditionsOfficial match rules for Tests, ODIs and T20Is, including rain-affected matches.International Cricket Council
- ESPNcricinfoScorecards, venue records and player statistics.ESPN
External sites open in a new tab. We aren't affiliated with them.