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FootballPremier League 2026/27

Newcastle United vs Everton prediction

By Goexch Football Desk, Premier League analysisUpdated

Goexch verdictStrong lean

Newcastle United are our pick (strong lean). The Goexch goals model gives them a 71% chance to win, a fair back price of 1.41, with the draw at 17%. We expect 3.2 goals and a 2-0 score, and both teams score in 53% of simulations. Kick-off: Mon, 02 Nov 2026, 01:30 IST, next day IST at St James' Park.

Exchange view

Fair prices

  1. Newcastle UnitedPick

    71%
    Back1.41Lay1.41

  2. Draw

    17%
    Back5.88Lay5.88

  3. Everton

    12%
    Back8.33Lay8.33
Start
01:30
IST
Date
Mon, 02 Nov 2026 · 20:00 UK
Venue
St James' Park, Newcastle

Back at the gold price or bigger, lay at it or smaller.

Quick read

Newcastle vs Everton in brief

  • Newcastle 71%, draw 17%, Everton 12%, which makes this a strong lean.
  • Predicted score 2-0, with goals expected (3.2 xG).
  • Both teams to score: 53% on our model.
Predicted score
2-0
Goexch pick
Newcastle
UK broadcast
Sky Sports
Projected cards
3.5-4.5

Exchange plan

How should you trade Newcastle vs Everton on Goexch?

Our fair prices for the pick and the outsider. Laying the outsider wins if the favourite wins or it ends in a draw.

  1. Back71% chance

    Newcastle United1.41

    Take 1.41 or bigger. A ₹100 back at 1.41 returns ₹141, stake included.

  2. Lay12% chance

    Everton8.33

    Lay only at 8.33 or smaller. At 8.33, a ₹100 lay risks ₹733 to win ₹100.

Key factors

What will decide this match?

Home advantage first, then expected goals and the factor with the most influence on this match.

  1. Home advantage

    Edge: Newcastle

    Newcastle are the stronger side and at home, which our model values at just over a fifth of a goal. Both advantages add up.

  2. Expected goals

    Edge: Goals

    3.2 expected goals is above the league average, and over 2.5 goals lands 63% of the time in our simulations.

  3. Quality gap

    Edge: Newcastle

    Newcastle rate clearly higher and the draw is only 17%. If they score first, the match should go their way.

Goals model

How many goals will there be in Newcastle vs Everton?

Our model's chance of each goal total, with the most likely outcome in gold.

012345+

total goals

Both teams score
53%
Over 2.5 goals
63%
Expected goals
2.36 – 0.87
Half-time call
1-0

Team set-up

How will the two teams line up?

Confirmed line-ups are published about an hour before kick-off.

Home

Newcastle United

Newcastle are well drilled and have enough quality up front to punish mistakes at St James' Park. Everything they do starts with control of midfield.

Away

Everton

Everton are a practical mid-table side: solid without the ball on their trip to St James' Park, but lacking the creativity to run a game.

Risk radar

What could change the prediction?

The news that would move our numbers before kick-off.

  • If Newcastle name a weakened XI

    Rotation or a missing key player would cut several points from their win chance. Line-ups are out an hour before kick-off.

  • If Everton score first

    The favourite has to chase the game, and both the draw and the upset become much more likely.

  • If a red card comes in the first hour

    Going down to ten men changes the expected-goals picture completely, whichever side it hits.

Preview

Newcastle vs Everton match preview

Newcastle United host Everton in front of their own fans, and the Goexch numbers lean towards Newcastle. The expected-goals gap (2.36 for Newcastle, 0.87 for Everton) is the clearest signal, and it is where our 71% for Newcastle comes from. Everton's best chance is to keep it level into the last 30 minutes, when the draw becomes a real possibility.

Calendar

Calendar check: Newcastle and Everton

Recovery time and the next fixture for both clubs, from the published Premier League schedule.

Newcastle play 8 days after their game away at Palace on 25 Oct. After this, they go away at Fulham 5 days after this one. League game 9 of 38.

Everton play 9 days after their game away at Arsenal on 24 Oct. After this, they go at home to Coventry 4 days after this one. League game 9 of 38.

They meet again at Hill Dickinson Stadium on Sat, 06 Feb 2027, so this is the first of two league meetings. UK broadcaster: Sky Sports.

  1. 24 OctArsenal vs EvertonEmirates Stadium
  2. 25 OctPalace vs NewcastleSelhurst Park
  3. 02 NovNewcastle vs EvertonSt James' Park
  4. 06 NovEverton vs CoventryHill Dickinson Stadium
  5. 07 NovFulham vs NewcastleCraven Cottage

Keep reading

More Newcastle and Everton predictions

  1. 06 FebEverton vs Newcastle UnitedPremier League · 20:30 IST
  2. 07 NovFulham vs Newcastle UnitedPremier League · 20:30 IST
  3. 21 NovNewcastle United vs ArsenalPremier League · 23:00 IST
  4. 06 NovEverton vs Coventry CityPremier League · 01:30 IST, next day
  5. 23 NovBrentford vs EvertonPremier League · 01:30 IST, next day

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FAQ · 9

Newcastle United vs Everton FAQs

Short, direct answers to the questions fans ask most.

Still unsure? Ask the Goexch team on WhatsApp

Who will win Newcastle vs Everton?

Goexch predicts Newcastle United to win. Our goals model gives Newcastle 71%, the draw 17% and Everton 12%, which we class as a strong lean.

What is the predicted score for Newcastle United vs Everton?

Our predicted score is 2-0, with 1-0 at half-time. The most common exact score across our simulations is 2-0, at 11%.

What are the fair odds for Newcastle vs Everton?

On our numbers: Newcastle 1.41, draw 5.88, Everton 8.33. A back price shorter than that has no value on our model.

What time does Newcastle United vs Everton kick off in India?

01:30 IST, next day IST on Mon, 02 Nov 2026 (20:00 in the UK), at St James' Park in Newcastle. Kick-offs can move for TV, so check again closer to the day.

How do I trade Newcastle vs Everton on the Goexch exchange?

On our numbers, back Newcastle United at 1.41 or bigger, or lay Everton at 8.33 or smaller. Laying means you win if Everton do not win; at 8.33, a ₹100 lay risks ₹733. Prices move before and during the match, so check the live back and lay odds first.

Newcastle vs Everton match kaun jeetega?

Goexch goals model mein Newcastle United aage hain: Newcastle 71%, draw 17%, Everton 12%. Sabse sambhav score 2-0 hai. Yeh sirf anumaan hai, guarantee nahi.

Will both teams score in Newcastle vs Everton?

We put both teams to score at 53%, so we lean yes. Over 2.5 goals is 63%.

Can Everton cause an upset?

Yes, with an early goal, a disciplined defence and a quiet day for Newcastle's attack. We give Everton a 12% chance.

How many goals are expected in Newcastle vs Everton?

3.2 expected goals in total. The most likely number of goals is 3, and a 0-0 comes up 4% of the time.

Dates and kick-off times follow the published Premier League fixture list and can move for TV or cup commitments. Win percentages, projected scores and picks on this page come from the Goexch model, built on team strength, venue history and conditions. They are estimates, not guarantees, and bets are settled on the live exchange odds you take. 18+ only. Set a budget before you bet and play responsibly.

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