Goexch
Get your ID

FootballPremier League · Tyne-Wear derby

Newcastle United vs Sunderland prediction

By Goexch Football Desk, Premier League analysisUpdated

Goexch verdictStrong lean

Goexch backs Newcastle United in Newcastle vs Sunderland, with a 74% win chance (strong lean). The model's most likely score is 2-0, the draw is 17%, both teams score 39% of the time and over 2.5 goals lands 52% of the time. Kick-off: Sat, 05 Dec 2026, 20:30 IST IST at St James' Park.

Exchange view

Fair prices

  1. Newcastle UnitedPick

    74%
    Back1.35Lay1.35

  2. Draw

    17%
    Back5.88Lay5.88

  3. Sunderland

    9%
    Back11.11Lay11.11
Start
20:30
IST
Date
Sat, 05 Dec 2026 · 15:00 UK
Venue
St James' Park, Newcastle

Back at the gold price or bigger, lay at it or smaller.

Quick read

Newcastle vs Sunderland in brief

  • Newcastle 74%, draw 17%, Sunderland 9%, which makes this a strong lean.
  • Predicted score 2-0, with the goals line finely balanced (2.8 xG).
  • This is the Tyne-Wear derby, so expect more cards and fewer clear chances.
Predicted score
2-0
Goexch pick
Newcastle
UK broadcast
Not televised yet
Projected cards
4.5-5.5

Exchange plan

How should you trade Newcastle vs Sunderland on Goexch?

Our fair prices for the pick and the outsider. Laying the outsider wins if the favourite wins or it ends in a draw.

  1. Back74% chance

    Newcastle United1.35

    Take 1.35 or bigger. A ₹100 back at 1.35 returns ₹135, stake included.

  2. Lay9% chance

    Sunderland11.11

    Lay only at 11.11 or smaller. At 11.11, a ₹100 lay risks ₹1011 to win ₹100.

Key factors

What will decide this match?

Home advantage first, then expected goals and the factor with the most influence on this match.

  1. Home advantage

    Edge: Newcastle

    Newcastle are the stronger side and at home, which our model values at just over a fifth of a goal. Both advantages add up.

  2. Expected goals

    Edge: Even

    At 2.8 expected goals, the 2.5 line is close to 50/50 (52% for the over).

  3. Derby intensity

    Edge: Draw

    The Tyne-Wear derby brings extra intensity, more fouls and a projected 4.5-5.5 cards. Derbies often finish closer than the league table suggests.

Goals model

How many goals will there be in Newcastle vs Sunderland?

Our model's chance of each goal total, with the most likely outcome in gold.

012345+

total goals

Both teams score
39%
Over 2.5 goals
52%
Expected goals
2.17 – 0.58
Half-time call
0-0

Team set-up

How will the two teams line up?

Confirmed line-ups are published about an hour before kick-off.

Home

Newcastle United

Newcastle are organised and hard to break down, and they usually get results at St James' Park by winning the midfield.

Away

Sunderland

Sunderland are a practical mid-table side: solid without the ball on their trip to St James' Park, but lacking the creativity to run a game.

Risk radar

What could change the prediction?

The news that would move our numbers before kick-off.

  • If Newcastle name a weakened XI

    Rotation or a missing key player would cut several points from their win chance. Line-ups are out an hour before kick-off.

  • If Sunderland score first

    The favourite has to chase the game, and both the draw and the upset become much more likely.

  • If a red card comes in the first hour

    Going down to ten men changes the expected-goals picture completely, whichever side it hits.

Preview

Newcastle vs Sunderland match preview

Sunderland visit St James' Park in a 2026/27 Premier League match that the Goexch model rates as a strong lean. Because this is the Tyne-Wear derby, form counts for less than usual, and we have pulled the numbers closer together to reflect that. We project 2.17 expected goals for Newcastle and 0.58 for Sunderland. Across thousands of simulated matches, Newcastle win 74% of them. An early goal would change everything for Sunderland. Teams chasing a game leave gaps, and that is where upsets come from.

Calendar

Calendar check: Newcastle and Sunderland

Recovery time and the next fixture for both clubs, from the published Premier League schedule.

Newcastle play 3 days after their game at home to Man Utd on 02 Dec, so tired legs could show late on. After this, they go away at Ipswich 7 days after this one. League game 14 of 38.

Sunderland play 3 days after their game away at Liverpool on 02 Dec, so tired legs could show late on. After this, they go at home to Forest 7 days after this one. League game 14 of 38.

They meet again at Stadium of Light on Sat, 01 May 2027, so this is the first of two league meetings.

  1. 02 DecNewcastle vs Man UtdSt James' Park
  2. 02 DecLiverpool vs SunderlandAnfield
  3. 05 DecNewcastle vs SunderlandSt James' Park
  4. 12 DecIpswich vs NewcastlePortman Road
  5. 12 DecSunderland vs ForestStadium of Light

Keep reading

More Newcastle and Sunderland predictions

  1. 01 MaySunderland vs Newcastle UnitedPremier League · 19:30 IST
  2. 12 DecIpswich Town vs Newcastle UnitedPremier League · 20:30 IST
  3. 19 DecBrentford vs Newcastle UnitedPremier League · 20:30 IST
  4. 12 DecSunderland vs Nottingham ForestPremier League · 20:30 IST
  5. 19 DecSunderland vs Crystal PalacePremier League · 20:30 IST
  6. 05 DecAFC Bournemouth vs Hull CityPremier League · 20:30 IST

Back or lay it live

Trade this match with your Goexch ID

One ID for cricket, football and tennis, with 24/7 WhatsApp support in English and Hindi. 18+ only. Set a budget first and bet responsibly.

Get your ID on WhatsApp

FAQ · 9

Newcastle United vs Sunderland FAQs

Short, direct answers to the questions fans ask most.

Still unsure? Ask the Goexch team on WhatsApp

Who will win Newcastle vs Sunderland?

Goexch predicts Newcastle United to win. Our goals model gives Newcastle 74%, the draw 17% and Sunderland 9%, which we class as a strong lean.

What is the predicted score for Newcastle United vs Sunderland?

Our predicted score is 2-0, with 0-0 at half-time. The most common exact score across our simulations is 2-0, at 15%.

What are the fair odds for Newcastle vs Sunderland?

On our numbers: Newcastle 1.35, draw 5.88, Sunderland 11.11. A back price shorter than that has no value on our model.

What time does Newcastle United vs Sunderland kick off in India?

20:30 IST IST on Sat, 05 Dec 2026 (15:00 in the UK), at St James' Park in Newcastle. Kick-offs can move for TV, so check again closer to the day.

How do I trade Newcastle vs Sunderland on the Goexch exchange?

On our numbers, back Newcastle United at 1.35 or bigger, or lay Sunderland at 11.11 or smaller. Laying means you win if Sunderland do not win; at 11.11, a ₹100 lay risks ₹1011. Prices move before and during the match, so check the live back and lay odds first.

Newcastle vs Sunderland match kaun jeetega?

Goexch goals model mein Newcastle United aage hain: Newcastle 74%, draw 17%, Sunderland 9%. Sabse sambhav score 2-0 hai. Yeh sirf anumaan hai, guarantee nahi.

Can Sunderland cause an upset?

Yes, with an early goal, a disciplined defence and a quiet day for Newcastle's attack. We give Sunderland a 9% chance.

Where can I watch Newcastle vs Sunderland?

Indian TV rights change between seasons, so check the official Premier League listings near the day.

Is betting on the Premier League legal in India?

Online betting rules in India are set at both the central and state level, and the Promotion and Regulation of Online Gaming Act, 2025 restricts online real-money games. Check the law that applies where you live before you play. This is general information, not legal advice, and you must be 18 or older.

Dates and kick-off times follow the published Premier League fixture list and can move for TV or cup commitments. Win percentages, projected scores and picks on this page come from the Goexch model, built on team strength, venue history and conditions. They are estimates, not guarantees, and bets are settled on the live exchange odds you take. 18+ only. Set a budget before you bet and play responsibly.

Check it at the source

Sources and official information

External sites open in a new tab. We aren't affiliated with them.