FootballPremier League · Tyne-Wear derby

Sunderland vs Newcastle United prediction

By Goexch Football Desk, Premier League analysisUpdated 14 Oct 2026

Goexch verdictCoin flip

Too close to call, with a slight lean to Newcastle. The Goexch goals model gives Sunderland 27%, the draw 25% and Newcastle 48%, and expects 2.6 goals in total. Our most likely score is 0-1. Kick-off: Sat, 01 May 2027, 19:30 IST IST at Stadium of Light.

Exchange view

Fair prices

Sunderland
27%
Back3.70Lay3.70
Draw
25%
Back4.00Lay4.00
Newcastle UnitedPick
48%
Back2.08Lay2.08

Start: 19:30; IST
Date: Sat, 01 May 2027 · 15:00 UK
Venue: Stadium of Light, Sunderland

Back at the gold price or bigger, lay at it or smaller.

Quick read

Sunderland vs Newcastle in brief

Newcastle 48%, draw 25%, Sunderland 27%, which makes this a coin flip.
Predicted score 0-1, with the goals line finely balanced (2.6 xG).
This is the Tyne-Wear derby, so expect more cards and fewer clear chances.

Predicted score: 0-1
Goexch pick: Newcastle
UK broadcast: Not televised yet
Projected cards: 4.5-5.5

Exchange plan

How should you trade Sunderland vs Newcastle on Goexch?

Our fair prices for the pick and the outsider. Laying the outsider wins if the favourite wins or it ends in a draw.

Back48% chance
Newcastle United2.08
Take 2.08 or bigger. A ₹100 back at 2.08 returns ₹208, stake included.
Lay27% chance
Sunderland3.70
Lay only at 3.70 or smaller. At 3.70, a ₹100 lay risks ₹270 to win ₹100.

Key factors

What will decide this match?

Home advantage first, then expected goals and the factor with the most influence on this match.

Home advantage
Edge: Even
Home support is worth about a fifth of a goal to Sunderland. That narrows the gap but does not cancel Newcastle's extra quality.
Expected goals
Edge: Even
At 2.6 expected goals, the 2.5 line is close to 50/50 (49% for the over).
Derby intensity
Edge: Draw
The Tyne-Wear derby brings extra intensity, more fouls and a projected 4.5-5.5 cards. Derbies often finish closer than the league table suggests.

Goals model

How many goals will there be in Sunderland vs Newcastle?

Our model's chance of each goal total, with the most likely outcome in gold.

19%

25%

22%

14%

13%

012345+

total goals

Both teams score: 52%
Over 2.5 goals: 49%
Expected goals: 1.08 – 1.54
Half-time call: 0-0

Market menu

Three tickets from safest to riskiest, each with our chance and the fair odds it needs.

Anchor
Draw no bet
Back Newcastle
Chance64%Fair odds1.56
You get your stake back if it ends level, so only a Sunderland win loses.
Value
Total goals
Under 3.5
Chance73%Fair odds1.37
A tight game is the most likely outcome, and four or more goals would be unusual.
Long shot
Correct score
Sunderland 0-1 Newcastle
Chance11%Fair odds9.09
The model's most likely score. Correct-score markets pay well but rarely land, so keep the stake small.

Team set-up

How will the two teams line up?

Confirmed line-ups are published about an hour before kick-off.

Home

Sunderland

Sunderland are a practical mid-table side: solid without the ball at Stadium of Light, but lacking the creativity to run a game.

Away

Newcastle United

Newcastle are organised and hard to break down, and they usually get results on their trip to Stadium of Light by winning the midfield.

Risk radar

What could change the prediction?

The news that would move our numbers before kick-off.

If Newcastle name a weakened XI
Rotation or a missing key player would cut several points from their win chance. Line-ups are out an hour before kick-off.
If Sunderland score first
The favourite has to chase the game, and both the draw and the upset become much more likely.
If a red card comes in the first hour
Going down to ten men changes the expected-goals picture completely, whichever side it hits.

Preview

Sunderland vs Newcastle match preview

Newcastle United visit Stadium of Light in a 2026/27 Premier League match that the Goexch model rates as a coin flip. Because this is the Tyne-Wear derby, form counts for less than usual, and we have pulled the numbers closer together to reflect that. We project 1.08 expected goals for Sunderland and 1.54 for Newcastle. Across thousands of simulated matches, Newcastle win 48% of them. An early goal would change everything for Sunderland. Teams chasing a game leave gaps, and that is where upsets come from.

Calendar

Calendar check: Sunderland and Newcastle

Recovery time and the next fixture for both clubs, from the published Premier League schedule.

Sunderland play 7 days after their game away at Forest on 24 Apr. After this, they go away at Brighton 7 days after this one. League game 34 of 38.

Newcastle play 7 days after their game at home to Ipswich on 24 Apr. After this, they go at home to Coventry 7 days after this one. League game 34 of 38.

These sides already met at St James' Park on Sat, 05 Dec 2026, making this the return fixture.

24 AprForest vs SunderlandCity Ground
24 AprNewcastle vs IpswichSt James' Park
01 MaySunderland vs NewcastleStadium of Light
08 MayBrighton vs SunderlandAmerican Express Stadium
08 MayNewcastle vs CoventrySt James' Park

Keep reading

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FAQ · 9

Sunderland vs Newcastle United FAQs

Short, direct answers to the questions fans ask most.

Still unsure? Ask the Goexch team on WhatsApp

Who will win Sunderland vs Newcastle?

Goexch predicts Newcastle United to win. Our goals model gives Sunderland 27%, the draw 25% and Newcastle 48%, which we class as a coin flip.

What is the predicted score for Sunderland vs Newcastle United?

Our predicted score is 0-1, with 0-0 at half-time. The most common exact score across our simulations is 1-1, at 12%.

What are the fair odds for Sunderland vs Newcastle?

On our numbers: Sunderland 3.70, draw 4.00, Newcastle 2.08. A back price shorter than that has no value on our model.

What time does Sunderland vs Newcastle United kick off in India?

19:30 IST IST on Sat, 01 May 2027 (15:00 in the UK), at Stadium of Light in Sunderland. Kick-offs can move for TV, so check again closer to the day.

How do I trade Sunderland vs Newcastle on the Goexch exchange?

On our numbers, back Newcastle United at 2.08 or bigger, or lay Sunderland at 3.70 or smaller. Laying means you win if Sunderland do not win; at 3.70, a ₹100 lay risks ₹270. Prices move before and during the match, so check the live back and lay odds first.

Sunderland vs Newcastle match kaun jeetega?

Goexch goals model mein Newcastle United aage hain: Sunderland 27%, draw 25%, Newcastle 48%. Sabse sambhav score 0-1 hai. Yeh sirf anumaan hai, guarantee nahi.

Where can I watch Sunderland vs Newcastle?

Indian TV rights change between seasons, so check the official Premier League listings near the day.

Is betting on the Premier League legal in India?

Online betting rules in India are set at both the central and state level, and the Promotion and Regulation of Online Gaming Act, 2025 restricts online real-money games. Check the law that applies where you live before you play. This is general information, not legal advice, and you must be 18 or older.

How many goals are expected in Sunderland vs Newcastle?

2.6 expected goals in total. The most likely number of goals is 2, and a 0-0 comes up 7% of the time.

Dates and kick-off times follow the published Premier League fixture list and can move for TV or cup commitments. Win percentages, projected scores and picks on this page come from the Goexch model, built on team strength, venue history and conditions. They are estimates, not guarantees, and bets are settled on the live exchange odds you take. 18+ only. Set a budget before you bet and play responsibly.

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Sources and official information

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