Odds explained
How bookmakers build the overround into their odds, worked through with real numbers: how to check a market's margin, why three-way markets cost more and how exchange pricing and commission compare.
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The overround
Every price implies a chance: divide 1 by the decimal odds. In a fair market, the chances for every outcome add up to exactly 100%. A bookmaker shortens each price a little, so they add up to more. Here's a two-way cricket match.
| Outcome | Odds | Implied chance | Money staked | Paid out if it wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team A | 1.80 | 55.6% | ₹5,556 | ₹10,000 |
| Team B | 2.05 | 48.8% | ₹4,878 | ₹10,000 |
| Total | 104.3% | ₹10,434 | ₹10,000 |
The chances add up to 104.3%, so the overround is 4.3%. If the bookmaker takes ₹10,434 in bets split as above, it pays out ₹10,000 whichever team wins and keeps ₹434, about 4.2% of everything staked. The result doesn't matter to the bookmaker. The arithmetic does.
Mental maths
Enter the prices for every outcome in a market. The calculator adds up the implied chances and shows what the market would pay without the margin.
As a rough guide, a two-way market within a few percent of 100% is tight. Once a market adds up to more than about 110%, you're paying a lot for the bet.
Margin calculator
Fair prices without the margin: 1.88 · 2.14
Two-way vs three-way
Each outcome is another price the margin can be added to. A Test match, where a draw is possible, often carries a bigger overround than a T20 match with only two results.
In the example, the three prices add up to 109.0%. That's more than double the margin on the two-way match above. Before betting on a three-way market, compare its margin with match odds on the same game.
Total109.0%
Bookmaker vs exchange
On an exchange like Goexch you bet against other players, not the house. Nobody builds a margin into the price, so prices are often closer to the true chance.
| Feature | Bookmaker | Exchange |
|---|---|---|
| Who sets the price | The bookmaker | Other players, by offering and taking bets |
| How it makes money | The overround built into every price | Usually a commission on your net winnings in a market |
| Where the cost shows | Hidden inside the odds | In the gap between back and lay prices, plus any commission |
| Can you bet against an outcome? | No | Yes, by laying it |
Commission comes off your net winnings in a market, so you can see it. Say an exchange charged 2%: a ₹100 back bet at 2.00 that wins would pay ₹98 profit instead of ₹100, the same as odds of 1.98. Ask support what applies to your Goexch ID.
If the best back price is 2.00 and the best lay price is 2.04, that gap is what you give up by trading in and out straight away. On a busy market it's usually small.
Liquidity
Big events such as an IPL final draw far more money than a small domestic fixture. With more bets and more competition on price, bookmakers tend to quote tighter margins, and exchange back and lay prices sit closer together. Smaller matches and unusual markets tend to cost more.
Knowing the margin won't make you win, but over many bets a cheaper market means you lose less.
Questions
Short answers to what players ask us most. The full FAQ covers payments, bonuses and account issues.
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These guides show where the margin turns up in the markets you'll bet on most.
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