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FootballPremier League 2026/27

Sunderland vs Liverpool prediction

By Goexch Football Desk, Premier League analysisUpdated

Goexch verdictStrong lean

Liverpool are our pick (strong lean). The Goexch goals model gives them a 68% chance to win, a fair back price of 1.47, with the draw at 18%. We expect 3.2 goals and a 0-2 score, and both teams score in 54% of simulations. Kick-off: Tue, 05 Jan 2027, 01:45 IST, next day IST at Stadium of Light.

Exchange view

Fair prices

  1. Sunderland

    14%
    Back7.14Lay7.14

  2. Draw

    18%
    Back5.56Lay5.56

  3. LiverpoolPick

    68%
    Back1.47Lay1.47
Start
01:45
IST
Date
Tue, 05 Jan 2027 · 20:15 UK
Venue
Stadium of Light, Sunderland

Back at the gold price or bigger, lay at it or smaller.

Quick read

Sunderland vs Liverpool in brief

  • Liverpool 68%, draw 18%, Sunderland 14%, which makes this a strong lean.
  • Predicted score 0-2, with goals expected (3.2 xG).
  • Both teams to score: 54% on our model.
Predicted score
0-2
Goexch pick
Liverpool
UK broadcast
Sky Sports
Projected cards
3.5-4.5

Exchange plan

How should you trade Sunderland vs Liverpool on Goexch?

Our fair prices for the pick and the outsider. Laying the outsider wins if the favourite wins or it ends in a draw.

  1. Back68% chance

    Liverpool1.47

    Take 1.47 or bigger. A ₹100 back at 1.47 returns ₹147, stake included.

  2. Lay14% chance

    Sunderland7.14

    Lay only at 7.14 or smaller. At 7.14, a ₹100 lay risks ₹614 to win ₹100.

Key factors

What will decide this match?

Home advantage first, then expected goals and the factor with the most influence on this match.

  1. Home advantage

    Edge: Even

    Home support is worth about a fifth of a goal to Sunderland. That narrows the gap but does not cancel Liverpool's extra quality.

  2. Expected goals

    Edge: Goals

    3.2 expected goals is above the league average, and over 2.5 goals lands 63% of the time in our simulations.

  3. Quality gap

    Edge: Liverpool

    Liverpool rate clearly higher and the draw is only 18%. If they score first, the match should go their way.

Goals model

How many goals will there be in Sunderland vs Liverpool?

Our model's chance of each goal total, with the most likely outcome in gold.

012345+

total goals

Both teams score
54%
Over 2.5 goals
63%
Expected goals
0.93 – 2.29
Half-time call
0-1

Team set-up

How will the two teams line up?

Confirmed line-ups are published about an hour before kick-off.

Home

Sunderland

Sunderland are a practical mid-table side: solid without the ball at Stadium of Light, but lacking the creativity to run a game.

Away

Liverpool

Liverpool are built to dominate the ball. They should have most of the possession on their trip to Stadium of Light and keep Sunderland pinned in their own half for long spells.

Risk radar

What could change the prediction?

The news that would move our numbers before kick-off.

  • If Liverpool name a weakened XI

    Rotation or a missing key player would cut several points from their win chance. Line-ups are out an hour before kick-off.

  • If Sunderland score first

    The favourite has to chase the game, and both the draw and the upset become much more likely.

  • If a red card comes in the first hour

    Going down to ten men changes the expected-goals picture completely, whichever side it hits.

Preview

Sunderland vs Liverpool match preview

Liverpool visit Stadium of Light in a 2026/27 Premier League match that the Goexch model rates as a strong lean. We project 0.93 expected goals for Sunderland and 2.29 for Liverpool. Across thousands of simulated matches, Liverpool win 68% of them. An early goal would change everything for Sunderland. Teams chasing a game leave gaps, and that is where upsets come from.

Calendar

Calendar check: Sunderland and Liverpool

Recovery time and the next fixture for both clubs, from the published Premier League schedule.

Sunderland play 3 days after their game at home to Hull on 02 Jan, so tired legs could show late on. After this, they go away at Chelsea 11 days after this one. League game 20 of 38.

Liverpool play 3 days after their game at home to Coventry on 02 Jan, so tired legs could show late on. After this, they go at home to Palace 11 days after this one. League game 20 of 38.

These sides already met at Anfield on Wed, 02 Dec 2026, making this the return fixture. UK broadcaster: Sky Sports.

  1. 02 JanSunderland vs HullStadium of Light
  2. 02 JanLiverpool vs CoventryAnfield
  3. 05 JanSunderland vs LiverpoolStadium of Light
  4. 16 JanChelsea vs SunderlandStamford Bridge
  5. 16 JanLiverpool vs PalaceAnfield

Keep reading

More Sunderland and Liverpool predictions

  1. 02 DecLiverpool vs SunderlandPremier League · 01:30 IST, next day
  2. 16 JanChelsea vs SunderlandPremier League · 20:30 IST
  3. 23 JanSunderland vs Coventry CityPremier League · 20:30 IST
  4. 16 JanLiverpool vs Crystal PalacePremier League · 20:30 IST
  5. 23 JanManchester United vs LiverpoolPremier League · 20:30 IST
  6. 05 JanArsenal vs BrentfordPremier League · 01:00 IST, next day

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FAQ · 9

Sunderland vs Liverpool FAQs

Short, direct answers to the questions fans ask most.

Still unsure? Ask the Goexch team on WhatsApp

Who will win Sunderland vs Liverpool?

Goexch predicts Liverpool to win. Our goals model gives Sunderland 14%, the draw 18% and Liverpool 68%, which we class as a strong lean.

What is the predicted score for Sunderland vs Liverpool?

Our predicted score is 0-2, with 0-1 at half-time. The most common exact score across our simulations is 0-2, at 10%.

What are the fair odds for Sunderland vs Liverpool?

On our numbers: Sunderland 7.14, draw 5.56, Liverpool 1.47. A back price shorter than that has no value on our model.

What time does Sunderland vs Liverpool kick off in India?

01:45 IST, next day IST on Tue, 05 Jan 2027 (20:15 in the UK), at Stadium of Light in Sunderland. Kick-offs can move for TV, so check again closer to the day.

How do I trade Sunderland vs Liverpool on the Goexch exchange?

On our numbers, back Liverpool at 1.47 or bigger, or lay Sunderland at 7.14 or smaller. Laying means you win if Sunderland do not win; at 7.14, a ₹100 lay risks ₹614. Prices move before and during the match, so check the live back and lay odds first.

Sunderland vs Liverpool match kaun jeetega?

Goexch goals model mein Liverpool aage hain: Sunderland 14%, draw 18%, Liverpool 68%. Sabse sambhav score 0-2 hai. Yeh sirf anumaan hai, guarantee nahi.

Will both teams score in Sunderland vs Liverpool?

We put both teams to score at 54%, so we lean yes. Over 2.5 goals is 63%.

Is betting on the Premier League legal in India?

Online betting rules in India are set at both the central and state level, and the Promotion and Regulation of Online Gaming Act, 2025 restricts online real-money games. Check the law that applies where you live before you play. This is general information, not legal advice, and you must be 18 or older.

How many goals are expected in Sunderland vs Liverpool?

3.2 expected goals in total. The most likely number of goals is 3, and a 0-0 comes up 4% of the time.

Dates and kick-off times follow the published Premier League fixture list and can move for TV or cup commitments. Win percentages, projected scores and picks on this page come from the Goexch model, built on team strength, venue history and conditions. They are estimates, not guarantees, and bets are settled on the live exchange odds you take. 18+ only. Set a budget before you bet and play responsibly.

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